Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über Polymarket Deutsch) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
92% | 8% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Auf Polymarket ansehen → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
92% | 8% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Auf Polymarket ansehen → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Auf Polymarket ansehen → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Auf Polymarket ansehen → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Auf Polymarket ansehen → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| Spread -1.5 | 92% |
| Spread -0.5 | 91% |
| Spread -2.5 | 90% |
| Spread -3.5 | 87% |
| Spread -4.5 | 86% |
| Spread -8.5 | 86% |
| Spread -5.5 | 85% |
| Spread -6.5 | 83% |
| South Florida O/U 23.5 | 83% |
| O/U 35.5 | 82% |
| Spread -7.5 | 79% |
| Spread -9.5 | 77% |
| Spread -10.5 | 74% |
| Spread -11.5 | 72% |
| O/U 39.5 | 70% |
| Spread -12.5 | 70% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 70% |
| Spread -13.5 | 69% |
| South Florida O/U 26.5 | 69% |
| South Florida O/U 29.5 | 69% |
| Spread -14.5 | 65% |
| South Florida O/U 32.5 | 65% |
| O/U 41.5 | 64% |
| Spread -15.5 | 64% |
| Spread -16.5 | 61% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 60% |
| O/U 43.5 | 59% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 59% |
| Spread -17.5 | 57% |
| Spread -18.5 | 56% |
| Spread -19.5 | 55% |
| O/U 45.5 | 54% |
| Spread -37.5 | 53% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 53% |
| Spread -20.5 | 52% |
| O/U 37.5 | 51% |
| 1Q Spread -5.5 | 51% |
| South Florida O/U 4.5 | 51% |
| Kent State O/U 1.5 | 51% |
| South Florida O/U 3.5 | 51% |
| Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| O/U 67.5 | 50% |
| O/U 75.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 30.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 33.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 27.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 30.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 33.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Kent State 1H O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| Kent State 1H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Kent State 1H O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| South Florida 1H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| South Florida 1H O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| South Florida 1H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Kent State 2H O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| Kent State 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Kent State 2H O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| South Florida 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| South Florida 2H O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| South Florida 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q3 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q1 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 2H | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 1H | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q2 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q4 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q1 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q2 | 50% |
| Kickoff or Punt Return Touchdown | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q3 | 50% |
| Game Goes to Overtime | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q4 | 50% |
| Kent State vs. South Florida: Total Touchdowns O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Kent State vs. South Florida: Total Touchdowns O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Kent State vs. South Florida: Total Touchdowns O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| Pick-Six Scored | 50% |
| Kent State Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| South Florida Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| South Florida Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Kent State Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5 | 50% |
| Kent State Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| South Florida Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Kent State Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Kent State Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5 | 50% |
| Kent State Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5 | 50% |
| South Florida Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5 | 50% |
| South Florida Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5 | 50% |
| South Florida Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5 | 50% |
| Kent State Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5 | 50% |
| Kent State Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5 | 50% |
| Kent State Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5 | 50% |
| South Florida Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5 | 50% |
| South Florida Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5 | 50% |
| Kent State Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| South Florida Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5 | 50% |
| Kent State Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5 | 50% |
| Kent State Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5 | 50% |
| South Florida Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5 | 50% |
| South Florida Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5 | 50% |
| Kent State 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| South Florida Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Kent State 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| South Florida 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| South Florida 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Kent State Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Kent State Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Kent State Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| South Florida Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| South Florida Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Kent State Total Receptions: O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| South Florida Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Kent State Total Receptions: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Kent State Total Receptions: O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| South Florida Total Receptions: O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| South Florida Total Receptions: O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| South Florida Total Receptions: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Kent State Total First Downs: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Kent State Total First Downs: O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Kent State Total First Downs: O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| South Florida Total First Downs: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| South Florida Total First Downs: O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Kent State vs. South Florida: Total 4th Down Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Kent State vs. South Florida: Total Defensive/Special Teams Touchdowns O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Kent State vs. South Florida: Total Successful Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| South Florida Total First Downs: O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| Spread -40.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -11.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 2H Moneyline | 50% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 1H Spread -11.5 | 49% |
| Kent State O/U 23.5 | 48% |
| O/U 47.5 | 46% |
| Spread -21.5 | 46% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 46% |
| Kent State O/U 26.5 | 45% |
| Spread -22.5 | 44% |
| O/U 49.5 | 41% |
| South Florida O/U 35.5 | 41% |
| Spread -23.5 | 41% |
| Spread -24.5 | 39% |
| 1H O/U 27.5 | 37% |
| O/U 51.5 | 35% |
| Spread -25.5 | 35% |
| Spread -26.5 | 35% |
| O/U 65.5 | 34% |
| Spread -34.5 | 34% |
| Spread -27.5 | 33% |
| Kent State O/U 29.5 | 31% |
| Spread -28.5 | 28% |
| Kent State O/U 32.5 | 27% |
| Spread -30.5 | 25% |
| O/U 57.5 | 22% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 21% |
| Kent State O/U 20.5 | 20% |
| O/U 53.5 | 19% |
| O/U 61.5 | 19% |
| Spread -33.5 | 19% |
| O/U 55.5 | 16% |
| O/U 59.5 | 14% |
| O/U 63.5 | 12% |
| Spread -36.5 | 12% |
| 1H Moneyline | 11% |
| Kent State vs. South Florida | 9% |
| Spread -0.5 | 9% |
| Spread -1.5 | 8% |
| Spread -2.5 | 6% |
| O/U 69.5 | 6% |
| O/U 71.5 | 5% |
| O/U 73.5 | 4% |
Markt-Kontext
Marktkonsens: 92% Chance für prognose: kent state vs. south florida. Prognosemärkte bündeln echtes Kapital zu diesem Wahrscheinlichkeitssignal. In the upcoming college football game between Kent State and South Florida, scheduled for October 17 at 7:00PM ET: This market will resolve to "Kent State" if Kent State win the ga…
Live-Daten & Statistiken
Live-Statistiken werden geladen, sobald das Spiel beginnt. Aktuelle Quoten sind oben verfügbar. Handelsvolumen: $122K.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Methodisch unterscheiden wir zwei Schichten: die Live-Wahrscheinlichkeit (Polymarket-Mid-Preis) und die Plattform-Attribute (Gebühren, KYC, Auszahlung, Settlement-Währung). Eine kanonische Wahrscheinlichkeit über die Zeile, die Anbieter-spezifischen Trade-offs in den Spalten — sauber, vergleichbar, ohne Marketing-Lärm.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Die Auflösung läuft on-chain. Polymarkets Vertragslogik trennt YES- und NO-Anteile als Conditional Tokens; bei Auflösung werden die richtigen Anteile zu 100¢ und die anderen zu 0¢. Die Outcome-Eingabe kommt vom UMA Optimistic Oracle, das mit einem Bond-System gegen falsche Auflösung absichert.
Sobald die Auflösung durch ist, hebt der Smart Contract alle gewinnenden Anteile zu USDC und schickt die Beträge an die Wallets der Inhaber. Das geschieht binnen Minuten der finalen Bestätigung — ohne Auszahlungsgebühren über die Polygon-Netzwerkkosten hinaus.
Häufige Fragen
- Sind Prediction-Märkte in Deutschland legal?
- Prediction-Märkte befinden sich in Deutschland in einem rechtlichen Graubereich. Polymarket selbst ist in Deutschland geo-blockiert. Handeln Sie nur mit Kapital, dessen Verlust Sie verkraften können, und prüfen Sie die rechtliche Lage für Ihre Jurisdiktion.
- Was ist der Unterschied zwischen YES- und NO-Anteilen?
- Ein YES-Anteil zahlt $1,00 bei Eintritt des Ereignisses, sonst $0. Ein NO-Anteil zahlt $1,00, wenn das Ereignis nicht eintritt. Der Marktpreis zwischen 0¢ und 100¢ ist die implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit.
- Welche Gebühren fallen bei Polymarket an?
- Direkt am Polymarket-Orderbuch keine Gebühren — die einzigen Kosten sind Polygon-Netzwerkgebühren (typischerweise unter $0,01 pro Transaktion). Off-chain Plattformen wie Kalshi oder Betfair verlangen 2-7 % Kommission.
- Wie lange dauert eine USDC-Einzahlung?
- Auf Polygon werden Einzahlungen nach 12 Bestätigungen gutgeschrieben — in der Regel unter 30 Sekunden. Withdrawals folgen demselben Pfad und sind binnen Minuten auf Ihrer Wallet.
- Brauche ich KYC für diesen Markt?
- Auf Polymarket direkt nicht. Über vermittelnde Broker wie Polymarket Deutsch ist KYC erst ab $1.500 lebenslangem Trading-Volumen erforderlich — darunter handeln Sie pseudonym mit nur einer Wallet-Adresse.
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Jetzt „Prognose: Kent State vs. South Florida" auf Polymarket Deutsch handeln
Live-Orderbuch, 0 % Gebühren, USDC-Auszahlung in Sekunden.
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