Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über Polymarket Deutsch) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
98% | 2% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Auf Polymarket ansehen → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
98% | 2% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Auf Polymarket ansehen → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Auf Polymarket ansehen → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Auf Polymarket ansehen → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Auf Polymarket ansehen → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| Spread -0.5 | 98% |
| Spread -1.5 | 98% |
| Spread -2.5 | 98% |
| Spread -3.5 | 98% |
| Spread -4.5 | 97% |
| Spread -5.5 | 96% |
| Spread -6.5 | 96% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 96% |
| Spread -7.5 | 95% |
| O/U 35.5 | 95% |
| O/U 37.5 | 95% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 95% |
| Spread -8.5 | 93% |
| Spread -10.5 | 93% |
| Spread -9.5 | 93% |
| Spread -12.5 | 92% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 91% |
| Spread -11.5 | 91% |
| Spread -13.5 | 90% |
| O/U 39.5 | 90% |
| O/U 41.5 | 90% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 90% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 90% |
| Oregon State 1H O/U 12.5 | 90% |
| Spread -14.5 | 88% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 88% |
| O/U 43.5 | 87% |
| Spread -15.5 | 86% |
| Spread -16.5 | 85% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 84% |
| 2Q O/U 7.5 | 82% |
| Spread -17.5 | 81% |
| O/U 45.5 | 81% |
| Oregon State O/U 23.5 | 81% |
| Oregon State O/U 35.5 | 80% |
| Spread -18.5 | 80% |
| Spread -19.5 | 80% |
| Spread -20.5 | 77% |
| O/U 47.5 | 77% |
| Spread -21.5 | 74% |
| O/U 49.5 | 72% |
| Spread -22.5 | 71% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 70% |
| 1H O/U 27.5 | 69% |
| Spread -23.5 | 69% |
| O/U 51.5 | 66% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 65% |
| Spread -24.5 | 65% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 64% |
| 1H O/U 30.5 | 61% |
| Spread -25.5 | 61% |
| Spread -26.5 | 61% |
| O/U 53.5 | 60% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 60% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 57% |
| 1Q O/U 16.5 | 54% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 54% |
| Oregon State 1H O/U 14.5 | 53% |
| Oregon State 1H O/U 16.5 | 53% |
| Spread -28.5 | 53% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 53% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 53% |
| 1Q Spread -5.5 | 53% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 53% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 53% |
| O/U 55.5 | 52% |
| Washington State 2H O/U 15.5 | 51% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q3 | 51% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q2 | 51% |
| Oregon State Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5 | 51% |
| Washington State vs. Oregon State: Total Defensive/Special Teams Touchdowns O/U 0.5 | 51% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 51% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 51% |
| 3Q Spread -5.5 | 51% |
| Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 33.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 27.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 30.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 33.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Washington State O/U 32.5 | 50% |
| Oregon State O/U 26.5 | 50% |
| Oregon State O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| Oregon State O/U 32.5 | 50% |
| Washington State 1H O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| Washington State 1H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Washington State 1H O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| Washington State 2H O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| Washington State 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Oregon State 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Oregon State 2H O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Oregon State 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 2H | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q1 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 1H | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q4 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q3 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q2 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q4 | 50% |
| Kickoff or Punt Return Touchdown | 50% |
| Game Goes to Overtime | 50% |
| Pick-Six Scored | 50% |
| Washington State vs. Oregon State: Total Touchdowns O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| Washington State Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Washington State Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Washington State vs. Oregon State: Total Touchdowns O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Washington State vs. Oregon State: Total Touchdowns O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Washington State Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Oregon State Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Oregon State Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Oregon State Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Oregon State Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5 | 50% |
| Washington State Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5 | 50% |
| Washington State Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5 | 50% |
| Oregon State Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5 | 50% |
| Oregon State Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5 | 50% |
| Washington State Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5 | 50% |
| Washington State Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5 | 50% |
| Oregon State Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5 | 50% |
| Oregon State Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5 | 50% |
| Washington State Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5 | 50% |
| Oregon State Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5 | 50% |
| Washington State Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5 | 50% |
| Washington State Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5 | 50% |
| Washington State Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Oregon State Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5 | 50% |
| Oregon State Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Oregon State Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5 | 50% |
| Washington State 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Washington State 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Washington State Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Oregon State 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Washington State Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Washington State Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Oregon State Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Washington State Total Receptions: O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Oregon State Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Washington State Total Receptions: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Washington State Total Receptions: O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| Oregon State Total Receptions: O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Oregon State Total Receptions: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Oregon State Total Receptions: O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| Oregon State Total First Downs: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Washington State Total First Downs: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Washington State Total First Downs: O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| Washington State Total First Downs: O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Oregon State Total First Downs: O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| Oregon State Total First Downs: O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Washington State vs. Oregon State: Total 4th Down Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Washington State vs. Oregon State: Total Successful Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -11.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -11.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Moneyline | 50% |
| Oregon State O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Washington State O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| 1H Moneyline | 50% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| Washington State O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Washington State Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5 | 49% |
| Oregon State 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 49% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 48% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 48% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q1 | 48% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 48% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 47% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 47% |
| 1Q O/U 19.5 | 46% |
| 2Q O/U 16.5 | 46% |
| O/U 57.5 | 45% |
| Spread -31.5 | 44% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 42% |
| O/U 59.5 | 41% |
| Spread -32.5 | 41% |
| Spread -34.5 | 35% |
| O/U 61.5 | 34% |
| 2Q O/U 19.5 | 32% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 32% |
| Spread -35.5 | 31% |
| O/U 63.5 | 29% |
| O/U 65.5 | 29% |
| 4Q O/U 16.5 | 29% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 28% |
| Spread -38.5 | 25% |
| 3Q O/U 16.5 | 23% |
| Washington State O/U 20.5 | 23% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 23% |
| O/U 67.5 | 22% |
| 4Q O/U 19.5 | 20% |
| O/U 73.5 | 17% |
| O/U 75.5 | 17% |
| 3Q O/U 19.5 | 17% |
| O/U 69.5 | 16% |
| O/U 71.5 | 15% |
| Washington State O/U 23.5 | 14% |
| Washington State O/U 29.5 | 11% |
| Washington State O/U 26.5 | 10% |
| Washington State vs. Oregon State | 3% |
| Spread -2.5 | 3% |
| Spread -4.5 | 2% |
| Spread -3.5 | 2% |
| Spread -1.5 | 2% |
| Spread -13.5 | 1% |
| Spread -10.5 | 1% |
| Spread -7.5 | 1% |
| Spread -6.5 | 1% |
| Spread -5.5 | 1% |
Markt-Kontext
Händler auf dezentralen Prognosemärkten geben 98% Wahrscheinlichkeit für Prognose: Washington State vs. Oregon State. In the upcoming college football game between Washington State and Oregon State, scheduled for October 17 at 6:00PM ET: This market will resolve to "Washington State" if Washington State win the game.…
Live-Daten & Statistiken
Live-Statistiken werden geladen, sobald das Spiel beginnt. Aktuelle Quoten sind oben verfügbar. Handelsvolumen: $125K.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Wir tracken Prognose: Washington State vs. Oregon State auf den fünf Plattformen mit substanzieller Prediction-Market-Liquidität. Die angezeigte Wahrscheinlichkeit ist der Polymarket-Live-Mid; die Vergleichszeilen zeigen, wie jede Plattform den zugrundeliegenden Vertrag handhabt — Gebühren, KYC, Settlement, Einzahlungsmethoden. Die hervorgehobene Zeile markiert die günstigste Route in Polymarkets Orderbuch.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Polymarket-basierte Märkte werden über das UMA Optimistic Oracle auf Polygon aufgelöst. Ein Vorschlagender reicht das Ergebnis ein, ein zweistündiges Einspruchsfenster öffnet sich, und unangefochtene Vorschläge schließen die Auflösung ab. Auszahlungen erfolgen automatisch in USDC, sobald das Ergebnis final ist — keine Buchhalter, keine Verzögerung.
Kalshi-basierte Märkte werden in USD über die CFTC-regulierte Settlement-Engine ausgezahlt. Betfair Exchange zahlt in GBP/EUR aus, abzüglich Kommission. Manifold ist Spielgeld und zahlt keine echten Beträge aus.
Häufige Fragen
- Sind Prediction-Märkte in Deutschland legal?
- Prediction-Märkte befinden sich in Deutschland in einem rechtlichen Graubereich. Polymarket selbst ist in Deutschland geo-blockiert. Handeln Sie nur mit Kapital, dessen Verlust Sie verkraften können, und prüfen Sie die rechtliche Lage für Ihre Jurisdiktion.
- Wie funktioniert die Auflösung?
- Über das UMA Optimistic Oracle: ein Vorschlagender reicht das Ergebnis ein, ein zweistündiges Einspruchsfenster öffnet sich, USDC-Auszahlung erfolgt automatisch.
- Was ist der Unterschied zwischen YES- und NO-Anteilen?
- Ein YES-Anteil zahlt $1,00 bei Eintritt des Ereignisses, sonst $0. Ein NO-Anteil zahlt $1,00, wenn das Ereignis nicht eintritt. Der Marktpreis zwischen 0¢ und 100¢ ist die implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit.
- Wie lange dauert eine USDC-Einzahlung?
- Auf Polygon werden Einzahlungen nach 12 Bestätigungen gutgeschrieben — in der Regel unter 30 Sekunden. Withdrawals folgen demselben Pfad und sind binnen Minuten auf Ihrer Wallet.
- Brauche ich KYC für diesen Markt?
- Auf Polymarket direkt nicht. Über vermittelnde Broker wie Polymarket Deutsch ist KYC erst ab $1.500 lebenslangem Trading-Volumen erforderlich — darunter handeln Sie pseudonym mit nur einer Wallet-Adresse.
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Jetzt „Prognose: Washington State vs. Oregon State" auf Polymarket Deutsch handeln
Live-Orderbuch, 0 % Gebühren, USDC-Auszahlung in Sekunden.
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