Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über Polymarket Deutsch) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
83% | 17% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Auf Polymarket ansehen → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
83% | 17% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Auf Polymarket ansehen → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Auf Polymarket ansehen → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Auf Polymarket ansehen → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Auf Polymarket ansehen → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| Harry Kane: 1+ shots | 83% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ shots | 78% |
| Harry Kane: 2+ shots | 61% |
| Jude Bellingham: 1+ shots | 59% |
| Désiré Doué: 1+ shots | 57% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 2+ shots | 57% |
| Anthony Gordon: 1+ shots | 54% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals | 53% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ shots on target | 53% |
| Désiré Doué: 2+ shots | 53% |
| Bradley Barcola: 1+ shots | 52% |
| Michael Olise: 2+ shots | 51% |
| Michael Olise: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Bradley Barcola: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Eberechi Eze: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Dayot Upamecano: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Jordan Pickford: 2+ saves | 49% |
| Declan Rice: 1+ shots | 49% |
| Bradley Barcola: 4+ shots on target | 49% |
| Désiré Doué: 4+ shots on target | 49% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 1+ shots on target | 49% |
| Lucas Digne: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Michael Olise: 4+ shots on target | 49% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Anthony Gordon: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Anthony Gordon: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Anthony Gordon: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Anthony Gordon: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Bradley Barcola: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Bradley Barcola: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Bradley Barcola: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Bukayo Saka: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Bukayo Saka: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Declan Rice: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Declan Rice: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Désiré Doué: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Désiré Doué: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Eberechi Eze: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Eberechi Eze: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Elliot Anderson: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Elliot Anderson: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Elliot Anderson: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Harry Kane: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Harry Kane: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Harry Kane: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Jude Bellingham: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Jude Bellingham: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Jude Bellingham: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Manu Koné: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Manu Koné: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Manu Koné: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Manu Koné: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Marcus Rashford: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Marcus Rashford: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Marcus Rashford: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Michael Olise: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Michael Olise: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Michael Olise: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Morgan Rogers: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Morgan Rogers: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Noni Madueke: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Noni Madueke: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Rayan Cherki: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Rayan Cherki: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Rayan Cherki: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Théo Hernández: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Théo Hernández: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Jude Bellingham: 4+ shots on target | 49% |
| Jordan Pickford: 3+ saves | 48% |
| Anthony Gordon: 1+ shots on target | 48% |
| Harry Kane: 1+ shots on target | 48% |
| Bukayo Saka: 3+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Declan Rice: 4+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Désiré Doué: 4+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Elliot Anderson: 4+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Noni Madueke: 4+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 1+ shots on target | 47% |
| Jules Koundé: 1+ shots on target | 47% |
| Harry Kane: 3+ shots | 47% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 3+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 4+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Bukayo Saka: 4+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Morgan Rogers: 4+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Théo Hernández: 4+ goals + assists | 46% |
| Brice Samba: 2+ saves | 44% |
| Manu Koné: 1+ shots | 44% |
| Anthony Gordon: 3+ shots on target | 44% |
| Jude Bellingham: 2+ shots on target | 43% |
| Declan Rice: 1+ shots on target | 42% |
| Manu Koné: 1+ shots on target | 42% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 3+ shots | 42% |
| Elliot Anderson: 1+ shots on target | 41% |
| Michael Olise: 1+ shots on target | 41% |
| Bradley Barcola: 2+ shots on target | 40% |
| Désiré Doué: 1+ shots on target | 40% |
| Jude Bellingham: 1+ shots on target | 40% |
| Lucas Digne: 1+ shots on target | 40% |
| Brice Samba: 3+ saves | 39% |
| Harry Kane: 1+ goals | 37% |
| Anthony Gordon: 2+ shots on target | 37% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 4+ shots on target | 37% |
| Jordan Pickford: 5+ saves | 36% |
| Anthony Gordon: 2+ shots | 36% |
| Bradley Barcola: 1+ shots on target | 36% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 2+ shots on target | 36% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals + assists | 36% |
| Nico O’Reilly: 1+ shots | 35% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 3+ shots on target | 34% |
| Brice Samba: 4+ saves | 33% |
| Jude Bellingham: 3+ shots on target | 33% |
| Jude Bellingham: 2+ shots | 32% |
| Jules Koundé: 1+ shots | 32% |
| Bradley Barcola: 3+ shots on target | 32% |
| Declan Rice: 2+ shots on target | 32% |
| Michael Olise: 3+ shots on target | 32% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 2+ shots on target | 31% |
| Harry Kane: 4+ shots on target | 31% |
| Manu Koné: 2+ shots on target | 31% |
| Nico O’Reilly: 2+ shots on target | 31% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 1+ shots | 30% |
| Elliot Anderson: 2+ shots on target | 30% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 4+ shots on target | 30% |
| William Saliba: 1+ shots on target | 30% |
| Rayan Cherki: 1+ goals + assists | 30% |
| Jordan Pickford: 4+ saves | 29% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ goals | 28% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 1+ shots | 28% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ goals + assists | 27% |
| Brice Samba: 5+ saves | 26% |
| Michael Olise: 1+ assists | 26% |
| Harry Kane: 1+ goals + assists | 26% |
| Michael Olise: 1+ goals + assists | 26% |
| Jude Bellingham: 1+ goals | 25% |
| Elliot Anderson: 1+ shots | 24% |
| Harry Kane: 2+ shots on target | 24% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 2+ shots on target | 24% |
| Désiré Doué: 3+ shots | 23% |
| Marcus Rashford: 1+ goals + assists | 23% |
| Declan Rice: 2+ goals | 22% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 3+ shots on target | 22% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 1+ assists | 22% |
| Eberechi Eze: 1+ goals + assists | 22% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 1+ shots on target | 21% |
| Désiré Doué: 2+ shots on target | 21% |
| Harry Kane: 4+ shots | 21% |
| Morgan Rogers: 1+ goals + assists | 21% |
| Noni Madueke: 1+ goals + assists | 21% |
| Bradley Barcola: 2+ shots | 20% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 4+ shots | 20% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 1+ goals + assists | 20% |
| Jude Bellingham: 1+ goals + assists | 20% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals | 19% |
| Michael Olise: 1+ goals | 19% |
| Michael Olise: 3+ shots | 19% |
| Théo Hernández: 1+ goals + assists | 19% |
| Jude Bellingham: 3+ shots | 18% |
| Manu Koné: 2+ shots | 18% |
| Marc Guéhi: 1+ shots | 18% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 2+ shots | 17% |
| Dayot Upamecano: 1+ shots | 17% |
| Ezri Konsa: 1+ shots | 17% |
| Nico O’Reilly: 2+ shots | 17% |
| Michael Olise: 2+ shots on target | 17% |
| Désiré Doué: 1+ goals | 16% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 2+ shots | 16% |
| Rayan Cherki: 1+ assists | 16% |
| Lucas Digne: 1+ shots | 15% |
| Anthony Gordon: 1+ goals | 14% |
| Rayan Cherki: 1+ goals | 14% |
| Elliot Anderson: 2+ shots | 14% |
| Dayot Upamecano: 1+ shots on target | 14% |
| Ezri Konsa: 1+ shots on target | 14% |
| Marc Guéhi: 1+ shots on target | 14% |
| Anthony Gordon: 1+ assists | 14% |
| Anthony Gordon: 2+ assists | 14% |
| Harry Kane: 1+ assists | 14% |
| Morgan Rogers: 2+ assists | 14% |
| Declan Rice: 1+ goals + assists | 14% |
| Désiré Doué: 1+ goals + assists | 14% |
| Anthony Gordon: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Bradley Barcola: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Désiré Doué: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Eberechi Eze: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Elliot Anderson: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Marcus Rashford: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Marcus Rashford: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Michael Olise: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Morgan Rogers: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Harry Kane: 3+ shots on target | 13% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Bukayo Saka: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Eberechi Eze: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Elliot Anderson: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Noni Madueke: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Rayan Cherki: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Théo Hernández: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Anthony Gordon: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 2+ goals | 12% |
| Eberechi Eze: 1+ goals | 12% |
| Noni Madueke: 1+ goals | 12% |
| Théo Hernández: 2+ goals | 12% |
| Désiré Doué: 3+ shots on target | 12% |
| Michael Olise: 4+ shots | 12% |
| Bukayo Saka: 1+ assists | 12% |
| Noni Madueke: 1+ assists | 12% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ assists | 12% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 2+ goals | 11% |
| Bradley Barcola: 1+ goals | 11% |
| Bukayo Saka: 2+ goals | 11% |
| Manu Koné: 2+ goals | 11% |
| Noni Madueke: 2+ goals | 11% |
| Anthony Gordon: 3+ shots | 11% |
| Jude Bellingham: 4+ shots | 11% |
| Jules Koundé: 2+ shots | 11% |
| Lucas Digne: 2+ shots | 11% |
| Bradley Barcola: 3+ shots | 11% |
| Nico O’Reilly: 1+ shots on target | 11% |
| Morgan Rogers: 1+ goals | 10% |
| Rayan Cherki: 3+ goals | 10% |
| Jules Koundé: 3+ shots | 10% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 2+ shots on target | 10% |
| Bradley Barcola: 1+ assists | 10% |
| Désiré Doué: 1+ assists | 10% |
| Marcus Rashford: 1+ assists | 10% |
| Bukayo Saka: 1+ goals | 9% |
| Harry Kane: 2+ goals | 9% |
| Marcus Rashford: 1+ goals | 9% |
| Rayan Cherki: 2+ goals | 9% |
| Dayot Upamecano: 2+ shots | 9% |
| Declan Rice: 2+ shots | 9% |
| Désiré Doué: 4+ shots | 9% |
| Eberechi Eze: 1+ assists | 9% |
| Jude Bellingham: 1+ assists | 9% |
| Théo Hernández: 1+ assists | 8% |
| Declan Rice: 1+ goals | 7% |
| Théo Hernández: 1+ goals | 6% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 3+ shots | 6% |
| Anthony Gordon: 4+ shots | 6% |
| Dayot Upamecano: 3+ shots | 6% |
| Declan Rice: 3+ shots | 6% |
| Ezri Konsa: 2+ shots | 6% |
| Marc Guéhi: 2+ shots | 6% |
| Nico O’Reilly: 3+ shots | 6% |
| Bradley Barcola: 4+ shots | 6% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 1+ assists | 6% |
| Declan Rice: 1+ assists | 6% |
| Elliot Anderson: 1+ assists | 6% |
| Manu Koné: 2+ assists | 6% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 1+ goals | 5% |
| Elliot Anderson: 1+ goals | 5% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 3+ goals | 5% |
| Manu Koné: 1+ goals | 5% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 2+ goals | 5% |
| Elliot Anderson: 3+ shots | 5% |
| Lucas Digne: 3+ shots | 5% |
| Manu Koné: 3+ shots | 5% |
| Désiré Doué: 5+ shots | 5% |
| Harry Kane: 5+ shots | 5% |
| Michael Olise: 5+ shots | 5% |
| Manu Koné: 1+ assists | 5% |
| Michael Olise: 2+ assists | 5% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 1+ goals | 4% |
| Michael Olise: 2+ goals | 4% |
| Jude Bellingham: 5+ shots | 4% |
| Manu Koné: 4+ shots | 4% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 3+ shots | 4% |
| Bradley Barcola: 5+ shots | 4% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 5+ shots | 4% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 1+ assists | 4% |
| Harry Kane: 2+ assists | 4% |
| Morgan Rogers: 1+ assists | 4% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 2+ assists | 4% |
| Désiré Doué: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Jude Bellingham: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 4+ shots | 3% |
| Anthony Gordon: 5+ shots | 3% |
| Declan Rice: 4+ shots | 3% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 4+ shots | 3% |
| Declan Rice: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Jude Bellingham: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Bradley Barcola: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Harry Kane: 3+ goals | 2% |
| Elliot Anderson: 4+ shots | 2% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 2+ assists | 2% |
| Bradley Barcola: 2+ assists | 2% |
| Désiré Doué: 2+ assists | 2% |
| Marcus Rashford: 2+ assists | 2% |
| Jude Bellingham: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 3+ goals | 1% |
| William Saliba: 1+ shots | 1% |
| William Saliba: 2+ shots | 1% |
Markt-Kontext
Händler auf dezentralen Prognosemärkten geben 83% Wahrscheinlichkeit für Prognose: France vs. England - Player Props. Player prop markets for the FIFA World Cup game between France and England, scheduled for July 18 at 5:00 PM ET.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Diese Seite ist als Vergleichs-Snapshot konzipiert: ein Live-Kurs (Polymarket), vier Referenz-Plattformen mit ihren Schlüssel-Eigenschaften, und ein durchgehender Pfad zur Ausführung — alle Trade-Buttons routen zu Polymarket Deutsch, das den Polymarket-Orderbuch direkt spiegelt.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Polymarket-basierte Märkte werden über das UMA Optimistic Oracle auf Polygon aufgelöst. Ein Vorschlagender reicht das Ergebnis ein, ein zweistündiges Einspruchsfenster öffnet sich, und unangefochtene Vorschläge schließen die Auflösung ab. Auszahlungen erfolgen automatisch in USDC, sobald das Ergebnis final ist — keine Buchhalter, keine Verzögerung.
Kalshi-basierte Märkte werden in USD über die CFTC-regulierte Settlement-Engine ausgezahlt. Betfair Exchange zahlt in GBP/EUR aus, abzüglich Kommission. Manifold ist Spielgeld und zahlt keine echten Beträge aus.
Häufige Fragen
- Wo kann ich diesen Markt am günstigsten handeln?
- Polymarket selbst ist global zugänglich, in DE/AT/CH allerdings geo-blockiert. Der einfachste Broker mit gleichem Orderbuch und 0 % Gebühr ist Polymarket Deutsch. Kalshi nimmt bis zu 7 % pro Trade, Betfair Exchange 2-5 % Kommission auf Gewinne.
- Sind Prediction-Märkte in Deutschland legal?
- Prediction-Märkte befinden sich in Deutschland in einem rechtlichen Graubereich. Polymarket selbst ist in Deutschland geo-blockiert. Handeln Sie nur mit Kapital, dessen Verlust Sie verkraften können, und prüfen Sie die rechtliche Lage für Ihre Jurisdiktion.
- Wie funktioniert die Auflösung?
- Über das UMA Optimistic Oracle: ein Vorschlagender reicht das Ergebnis ein, ein zweistündiges Einspruchsfenster öffnet sich, USDC-Auszahlung erfolgt automatisch.
- Brauche ich KYC für diesen Markt?
- Auf Polymarket direkt nicht. Über vermittelnde Broker wie Polymarket Deutsch ist KYC erst ab $1.500 lebenslangem Trading-Volumen erforderlich — darunter handeln Sie pseudonym mit nur einer Wallet-Adresse.
- Wie verlässlich sind die angezeigten Quoten?
- Die YES/NO-Prozentsätze sind die Live-Mid-Preise des Polymarket-Orderbuchs. Auf Märkten mit hoher Liquidität bewegen sich diese Werte sekündlich; bei dünneren Märkten sehen Sie kurze Plateaus.
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Jetzt „Prognose: France vs. England - Player Props" auf Polymarket Deutsch handeln
Live-Orderbuch, 0 % Gebühren, USDC-Auszahlung in Sekunden.
Live-Markt öffnen →