Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über Polymarket Deutsch) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Auf Polymarket ansehen → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Auf Polymarket ansehen → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Auf Polymarket ansehen → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Auf Polymarket ansehen → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Auf Polymarket ansehen → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| Julio César Enciso: 1+ shots | 100% |
| Leroy Sané: 1+ shots | 100% |
| Leon Goretzka: 1+ shots | 100% |
| Florian Wirtz: 1+ shots | 100% |
| Kai Havertz: 1+ goals | 100% |
| Kai Havertz: 1+ shots | 100% |
| Kai Havertz: 2+ shots | 100% |
| Florian Wirtz: 1+ assists | 100% |
| Julio César Enciso: 1+ goals | 100% |
| Kai Havertz: 1+ goals + assists | 100% |
| Julio César Enciso: 1+ goals + assists | 100% |
| Deniz Undav: 1+ shots | 100% |
| Joshua Kimmich: 3+ shots | 92% |
| Leon Goretzka: 2+ shots | 91% |
| Kai Havertz: 1+ shots on target | 91% |
| Julio César Enciso: 1+ shots on target | 90% |
| Joshua Kimmich: 1+ shots | 90% |
| Florian Wirtz: 1+ goals + assists | 90% |
| Julio César Enciso: 2+ shots | 77% |
| Manuel Neuer: 2+ saves | 76% |
| Joshua Kimmich: 2+ shots | 75% |
| Kai Havertz: 3+ shots | 75% |
| Florian Wirtz: 2+ shots | 61% |
| Julio César Enciso: 3+ shots | 56% |
| Deniz Undav: 1+ shots on target | 51% |
| Julio César Enciso: 2+ shots on target | 51% |
| Julio César Enciso: 3+ shots on target | 51% |
| Kai Havertz: 2+ shots on target | 51% |
| Kai Havertz: 3+ shots on target | 51% |
| Manuel Neuer: 3+ saves | 51% |
| Miguel Almirón: 1+ shots | 51% |
| Florian Wirtz: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Florian Wirtz: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Leroy Sané: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Leroy Sané: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Maximilian Beier: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Nick Woltemade: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Nick Woltemade: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Nick Woltemade: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Manuel Neuer: 4+ saves | 50% |
| Manuel Neuer: 5+ saves | 50% |
| Nadiem Amiri: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Nadiem Amiri: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Joshua Kimmich: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Joshua Kimmich: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Leon Goretzka: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Leon Goretzka: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Leon Goretzka: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Miguel Almirón: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Miguel Almirón: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Nathaniel Brown: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Nathaniel Brown: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Julio César Enciso: 5+ shots | 49% |
| Maximilian Beier: 1+ shots | 49% |
| Kai Havertz: 4+ shots | 49% |
| Kai Havertz: 5+ shots | 49% |
| Miguel Almirón: 2+ shots | 49% |
| Leroy Sané: 2+ shots | 48% |
| Nadiem Amiri: 2+ shots | 48% |
| Nathaniel Brown: 1+ shots | 48% |
| Nathaniel Brown: 2+ shots | 48% |
| Nick Woltemade: 1+ shots | 42% |
| Nadiem Amiri: 1+ shots | 25% |
| Nick Woltemade: 2+ shots | 20% |
| Florian Wirtz: 3+ shots | 10% |
| Florian Wirtz: 4+ shots | 10% |
| Florian Wirtz: 5+ shots | 10% |
| Jamie Leweling: 1+ shots | 10% |
| Assan Ouedraogo: 1+ shots on target | 10% |
| Assan Ouedraogo: 3+ shots on target | 10% |
| Florian Wirtz: 3+ shots on target | 10% |
| Jamal Musiala: 2+ shots on target | 10% |
| Jamie Leweling: 1+ shots on target | 10% |
| Jamie Leweling: 2+ shots on target | 10% |
| Gabriel Ávalos: 1+ shots | 10% |
| Gabriel Ávalos: 2+ shots | 10% |
| Julio César Enciso: 4+ shots | 10% |
| Maximilian Beier: 2+ shots on target | 10% |
| Gastón Olveira: 2+ saves | 10% |
| Jamie Leweling: 2+ assists | 10% |
| Maximilian Beier: 2+ assists | 10% |
| Nick Woltemade: 2+ assists | 10% |
| Nadiem Amiri: 3+ shots on target | 10% |
| Assan Ouedraogo: 1+ goals + assists | 10% |
| Jamal Musiala: 1+ goals + assists | 10% |
| Jamal Musiala: 3+ goals + assists | 10% |
| Jamie Leweling: 1+ goals + assists | 10% |
| Jamie Leweling: 2+ goals + assists | 10% |
| Jamie Leweling: 3+ goals + assists | 10% |
| Jamie Leweling: 4+ goals + assists | 10% |
| Kai Havertz: 3+ goals + assists | 10% |
| Kai Havertz: 4+ goals + assists | 10% |
| Maximilian Beier: 1+ goals + assists | 10% |
| Maximilian Beier: 2+ goals + assists | 10% |
| Maximilian Beier: 3+ goals + assists | 10% |
| Maximilian Beier: 4+ goals + assists | 10% |
| Nadiem Amiri: 1+ goals + assists | 10% |
| Nadiem Amiri: 2+ goals + assists | 10% |
| Nadiem Amiri: 3+ goals + assists | 10% |
| Nadiem Amiri: 4+ goals + assists | 10% |
| Nick Woltemade: 1+ goals + assists | 10% |
| Nick Woltemade: 3+ goals + assists | 10% |
| Nick Woltemade: 4+ goals + assists | 10% |
| Jamal Musiala: 2+ shots | 10% |
| Jamal Musiala: 3+ shots | 10% |
| Jamal Musiala: 4+ shots | 10% |
| Jamal Musiala: 5+ shots | 10% |
| Gabriel Ávalos: 1+ shots on target | 10% |
| Gabriel Ávalos: 2+ shots on target | 10% |
| Joshua Kimmich: 1+ goals + assists | 10% |
| Joshua Kimmich: 2+ goals + assists | 10% |
| Joshua Kimmich: 3+ goals + assists | 10% |
| Julio César Enciso: 2+ goals + assists | 10% |
| Leon Goretzka: 1+ goals + assists | 10% |
| Leon Goretzka: 2+ goals + assists | 10% |
| Leon Goretzka: 3+ goals + assists | 10% |
| Leon Goretzka: 4+ goals + assists | 10% |
| Miguel Almirón: 1+ goals + assists | 10% |
| Miguel Almirón: 2+ goals + assists | 10% |
| Nathaniel Brown: 1+ goals + assists | 10% |
| Nathaniel Brown: 2+ goals + assists | 10% |
| Gabriel Ávalos: 3+ shots | 10% |
| Gabriel Ávalos: 5+ shots | 10% |
| Miguel Almirón: 3+ shots | 10% |
| Miguel Almirón: 4+ shots | 10% |
| Nathaniel Brown: 3+ shots | 10% |
| Miguel Almirón: 1+ assists | 10% |
| Miguel Almirón: 2+ assists | 10% |
| Kai Havertz: 2+ goals + assists | 9% |
| Nick Woltemade: 1+ assists | 5% |
| Joshua Kimmich: 4+ shots | 3% |
| Maximilian Beier: 1+ assists | 2% |
| Nadiem Amiri: 1+ assists | 2% |
| Jamal Musiala: 1+ shots | 2% |
| Jamie Leweling: 2+ shots | 1% |
| Maximilian Beier: 5+ shots | 1% |
| Assan Ouedraogo: 2+ shots on target | 1% |
| Jamie Leweling: 3+ shots on target | 1% |
| Julio César Enciso: 2+ assists | 1% |
| Maximilian Beier: 2+ shots | 1% |
| Maximilian Beier: 3+ shots | 1% |
| Maximilian Beier: 4+ shots | 1% |
| Gastón Olveira: 3+ saves | 1% |
| Gastón Olveira: 4+ saves | 1% |
| Assan Ouedraogo: 2+ assists | 1% |
| Assan Ouedraogo: 1+ shots | 1% |
| Assan Ouedraogo: 2+ shots | 1% |
| Assan Ouedraogo: 3+ shots | 1% |
| Assan Ouedraogo: 4+ shots | 1% |
| Nick Woltemade: 2+ goals + assists | 1% |
| Gabriel Ávalos: 1+ goals + assists | 1% |
| Gabriel Ávalos: 3+ shots on target | 1% |
| Miguel Almirón: 3+ goals + assists | 1% |
| Nathaniel Brown: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Jamie Leweling: 3+ shots | 0% |
| Jamie Leweling: 4+ shots | 0% |
| Jamie Leweling: 5+ shots | 0% |
| Nick Woltemade: 3+ shots | 0% |
| Nick Woltemade: 4+ shots | 0% |
| Nick Woltemade: 5+ shots | 0% |
| Assan Ouedraogo: 4+ shots on target | 0% |
| Deniz Undav: 2+ shots on target | 0% |
| Deniz Undav: 3+ shots on target | 0% |
| Deniz Undav: 4+ shots on target | 0% |
| Florian Wirtz: 4+ shots on target | 0% |
| Jamal Musiala: 1+ shots on target | 0% |
| Jamal Musiala: 3+ shots on target | 0% |
| Nick Woltemade: 4+ shots on target | 0% |
| Felix Nmecha: 1+ shots | 0% |
| Felix Nmecha: 2+ shots | 0% |
| Felix Nmecha: 1+ assists | 0% |
| Felix Nmecha: 2+ assists | 0% |
| Gabriel Ávalos: 1+ assists | 0% |
| Gabriel Ávalos: 2+ assists | 0% |
| Joshua Kimmich: 1+ assists | 0% |
| Joshua Kimmich: 2+ assists | 0% |
| Julio César Enciso: 1+ assists | 0% |
| Leon Goretzka: 1+ assists | 0% |
| Leon Goretzka: 2+ assists | 0% |
| Felix Nmecha: 1+ shots on target | 0% |
| Felix Nmecha: 2+ shots on target | 0% |
| Felix Nmecha: 3+ shots on target | 0% |
| Leroy Sané: 3+ shots | 0% |
| Leroy Sané: 4+ shots | 0% |
| Leroy Sané: 5+ shots | 0% |
| Kai Havertz: 4+ shots on target | 0% |
| Leroy Sané: 3+ shots on target | 0% |
| Maximilian Beier: 3+ shots on target | 0% |
| Maximilian Beier: 4+ shots on target | 0% |
| Assan Ouedraogo: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Assan Ouedraogo: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Assan Ouedraogo: 3+ goals | 0% |
| Deniz Undav: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Deniz Undav: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Deniz Undav: 3+ goals | 0% |
| Florian Wirtz: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Florian Wirtz: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Florian Wirtz: 3+ goals | 0% |
| Jamal Musiala: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Jamal Musiala: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Jamal Musiala: 3+ goals | 0% |
| Jamie Leweling: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Jamie Leweling: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Jamie Leweling: 3+ goals | 0% |
| Kai Havertz: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Kai Havertz: 3+ goals | 0% |
| Leroy Sané: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Leroy Sané: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Leroy Sané: 3+ goals | 0% |
| Maximilian Beier: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Maximilian Beier: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Maximilian Beier: 3+ goals | 0% |
| Nadiem Amiri: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Nadiem Amiri: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Nadiem Amiri: 3+ goals | 0% |
| Nick Woltemade: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Nick Woltemade: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Nick Woltemade: 3+ goals | 0% |
| Gastón Olveira: 5+ saves | 0% |
| Assan Ouedraogo: 1+ assists | 0% |
| Deniz Undav: 2+ assists | 0% |
| Florian Wirtz: 2+ assists | 0% |
| Jamal Musiala: 1+ assists | 0% |
| Jamal Musiala: 2+ assists | 0% |
| Jamie Leweling: 1+ assists | 0% |
| Kai Havertz: 1+ assists | 0% |
| Kai Havertz: 2+ assists | 0% |
| Leroy Sané: 1+ assists | 0% |
| Leroy Sané: 2+ assists | 0% |
| Nadiem Amiri: 2+ assists | 0% |
| Assan Ouedraogo: 2+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Assan Ouedraogo: 3+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Assan Ouedraogo: 4+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Deniz Undav: 1+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Deniz Undav: 2+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Deniz Undav: 3+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Deniz Undav: 4+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Florian Wirtz: 2+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Florian Wirtz: 3+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Florian Wirtz: 4+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Julio César Enciso: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Assan Ouedraogo: 5+ shots | 0% |
| Jamal Musiala: 2+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Jamal Musiala: 4+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Leroy Sané: 1+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Leroy Sané: 2+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Leroy Sané: 3+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Leroy Sané: 4+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Felix Nmecha: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Deniz Undav: 1+ assists | 0% |
| Felix Nmecha: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Gabriel Ávalos: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Gabriel Ávalos: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Gabriel Ávalos: 3+ goals | 0% |
| Joshua Kimmich: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Joshua Kimmich: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Leon Goretzka: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Leon Goretzka: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Felix Nmecha: 1+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Felix Nmecha: 2+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Felix Nmecha: 3+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Felix Nmecha: 4+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Gabriel Ávalos: 2+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Gabriel Ávalos: 3+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Gabriel Ávalos: 4+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Joshua Kimmich: 4+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Julio César Enciso: 3+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Julio César Enciso: 4+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Leon Goretzka: 3+ goals | 0% |
| Felix Nmecha: 3+ shots | 0% |
| Felix Nmecha: 4+ shots | 0% |
| Felix Nmecha: 5+ shots | 0% |
| Jamal Musiala: 4+ shots on target | 0% |
| Jamie Leweling: 4+ shots on target | 0% |
| Deniz Undav: 2+ shots | 0% |
| Deniz Undav: 3+ shots | 0% |
| Deniz Undav: 4+ shots | 0% |
| Deniz Undav: 5+ shots | 0% |
| Miguel Almirón: 4+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Nathaniel Brown: 3+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Nathaniel Brown: 4+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Miguel Almirón: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Miguel Almirón: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Nathaniel Brown: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Gabriel Ávalos: 4+ shots | 0% |
| Nathaniel Brown: 1+ assists | 0% |
| Nathaniel Brown: 2+ assists | 0% |
Markt-Kontext
Prognose: Germany vs. Paraguay - Player Props — aktuelle Marktwahrscheinlichkeit: 100%. Player prop markets for the FIFA World Cup game between Germany and Paraguay, scheduled for June 29 at 4:30 PM ET.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Diese Seite ist als Vergleichs-Snapshot konzipiert: ein Live-Kurs (Polymarket), vier Referenz-Plattformen mit ihren Schlüssel-Eigenschaften, und ein durchgehender Pfad zur Ausführung — alle Trade-Buttons routen zu Polymarket Deutsch, das den Polymarket-Orderbuch direkt spiegelt.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Polymarket-basierte Märkte werden über das UMA Optimistic Oracle auf Polygon aufgelöst. Ein Vorschlagender reicht das Ergebnis ein, ein zweistündiges Einspruchsfenster öffnet sich, und unangefochtene Vorschläge schließen die Auflösung ab. Auszahlungen erfolgen automatisch in USDC, sobald das Ergebnis final ist — keine Buchhalter, keine Verzögerung.
Kalshi-basierte Märkte werden in USD über die CFTC-regulierte Settlement-Engine ausgezahlt. Betfair Exchange zahlt in GBP/EUR aus, abzüglich Kommission. Manifold ist Spielgeld und zahlt keine echten Beträge aus.
Häufige Fragen
- Wo kann ich diesen Markt am günstigsten handeln?
- Polymarket selbst ist global zugänglich, in DE/AT/CH allerdings geo-blockiert. Der einfachste Broker mit gleichem Orderbuch und 0 % Gebühr ist Polymarket Deutsch. Kalshi nimmt bis zu 7 % pro Trade, Betfair Exchange 2-5 % Kommission auf Gewinne.
- Wie funktioniert die Auflösung?
- Über das UMA Optimistic Oracle: ein Vorschlagender reicht das Ergebnis ein, ein zweistündiges Einspruchsfenster öffnet sich, USDC-Auszahlung erfolgt automatisch.
- Was ist der Unterschied zwischen YES- und NO-Anteilen?
- Ein YES-Anteil zahlt $1,00 bei Eintritt des Ereignisses, sonst $0. Ein NO-Anteil zahlt $1,00, wenn das Ereignis nicht eintritt. Der Marktpreis zwischen 0¢ und 100¢ ist die implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit.
- Wie lange dauert eine USDC-Einzahlung?
- Auf Polygon werden Einzahlungen nach 12 Bestätigungen gutgeschrieben — in der Regel unter 30 Sekunden. Withdrawals folgen demselben Pfad und sind binnen Minuten auf Ihrer Wallet.
- Wie verlässlich sind die angezeigten Quoten?
- Die YES/NO-Prozentsätze sind die Live-Mid-Preise des Polymarket-Orderbuchs. Auf Märkten mit hoher Liquidität bewegen sich diese Werte sekündlich; bei dünneren Märkten sehen Sie kurze Plateaus.
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Jetzt „Prognose: Germany vs. Paraguay - Player Props" auf Polymarket Deutsch handeln
Live-Orderbuch, 0 % Gebühren, USDC-Auszahlung in Sekunden.
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