Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über Polymarket Deutsch) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
93% | 7% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Auf Polymarket ansehen → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
93% | 7% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Auf Polymarket ansehen → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Auf Polymarket ansehen → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Auf Polymarket ansehen → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Auf Polymarket ansehen → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| Harry Kane: 1+ shots | 93% |
| Erling Haaland: 1+ shots | 92% |
| Jude Bellingham: 1+ shots | 84% |
| Erling Haaland: 2+ shots | 77% |
| Harry Kane: 2+ shots | 72% |
| Martin Ødegaard: 1+ shots | 70% |
| Anthony Gordon: 1+ shots | 68% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 1+ shots | 64% |
| Nico O’Reilly: 1+ shots | 62% |
| Antonio Nusa: 1+ shots | 60% |
| Jude Bellingham: 2+ shots | 56% |
| Marcus Pedersen: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Harry Kane: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Jude Bellingham: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Jordan Pickford: 2+ saves | 50% |
| Jordan Pickford: 5+ saves | 50% |
| Ørjan Nyland: 2+ saves | 50% |
| Ørjan Nyland: 5+ saves | 50% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Anthony Gordon: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Antonio Nusa: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Antonio Nusa: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Elliot Anderson: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Erling Haaland: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Erling Haaland: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Erling Haaland: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Jude Bellingham: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Marcus Rashford: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Marcus Rashford: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Marcus Rashford: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Martin Ødegaard: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Oscar Bobb: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Oscar Bobb: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Oscar Bobb: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Antonio Nusa: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Ezri Konsa: 2+ shots | 49% |
| Kristoffer Ajer: 2+ shots | 49% |
| Sander Berge: 2+ shots | 49% |
| Torbjørn Heggem: 2+ shots | 49% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 3+ shots on target | 49% |
| Anthony Gordon: 3+ shots on target | 49% |
| Elliot Anderson: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Erling Haaland: 4+ shots on target | 49% |
| Fredrik Aursnes: 1+ shots on target | 49% |
| Fredrik Aursnes: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Jude Bellingham: 4+ shots on target | 49% |
| Martin Ødegaard: 3+ shots on target | 49% |
| Nico O’Reilly: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Noni Madueke: 1+ shots on target | 49% |
| Noni Madueke: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Patrick Berg: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Jordan Pickford: 4+ saves | 49% |
| Ørjan Nyland: 3+ saves | 49% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Anthony Gordon: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Anthony Gordon: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Antonio Nusa: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Bukayo Saka: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Bukayo Saka: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Bukayo Saka: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Declan Rice: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Declan Rice: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Declan Rice: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Elliot Anderson: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Elliot Anderson: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Erling Haaland: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Harry Kane: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Harry Kane: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Harry Kane: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Jude Bellingham: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Jude Bellingham: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Marcus Rashford: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Martin Ødegaard: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Martin Ødegaard: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Martin Ødegaard: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Nico O’Reilly: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Nico O’Reilly: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Nico O’Reilly: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Nico O’Reilly: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Noni Madueke: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Noni Madueke: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Noni Madueke: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Noni Madueke: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Oscar Bobb: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Marc Guéhi: 2+ shots | 48% |
| Patrick Berg: 3+ shots | 48% |
| Erling Haaland: 1+ shots on target | 48% |
| Harry Kane: 4+ shots on target | 48% |
| Harry Kane: 1+ goals | 47% |
| Erling Haaland: 4+ shots | 47% |
| Patrick Berg: 1+ shots | 47% |
| Harry Kane: 3+ shots on target | 47% |
| Marcus Pedersen: 1+ shots on target | 47% |
| Noni Madueke: 3+ shots on target | 47% |
| Fredrik Aursnes: 3+ shots | 46% |
| Erling Haaland: 1+ goals | 45% |
| Elliot Anderson: 1+ shots | 44% |
| Erling Haaland: 3+ shots | 41% |
| Harry Kane: 3+ shots | 40% |
| Antonio Nusa: 2+ shots | 39% |
| Harry Kane: 4+ shots | 39% |
| Jude Bellingham: 1+ shots on target | 38% |
| Declan Rice: 1+ shots | 36% |
| Noni Madueke: 2+ shots | 36% |
| Noni Madueke: 1+ shots | 35% |
| Ørjan Nyland: 4+ saves | 33% |
| Harry Kane: 1+ goals + assists | 33% |
| Anthony Gordon: 1+ shots on target | 32% |
| Sander Berge: 1+ shots | 31% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 1+ shots on target | 31% |
| Harry Kane: 2+ shots on target | 31% |
| Ezri Konsa: 1+ shots | 30% |
| Martin Ødegaard: 2+ shots | 30% |
| Nico O’Reilly: 2+ shots | 30% |
| Jordan Pickford: 3+ saves | 30% |
| Declan Rice: 2+ shots | 29% |
| Erling Haaland: 2+ shots on target | 29% |
| Jude Bellingham: 3+ shots | 28% |
| Anthony Gordon: 2+ shots | 27% |
| Antonio Nusa: 1+ shots on target | 27% |
| Jude Bellingham: 1+ goals | 26% |
| Fredrik Aursnes: 1+ shots | 26% |
| Martin Ødegaard: 1+ shots on target | 25% |
| Anthony Gordon: 1+ goals + assists | 25% |
| Patrick Berg: 2+ shots | 24% |
| Patrick Berg: 1+ shots on target | 24% |
| Bukayo Saka: 1+ goals + assists | 24% |
| Jude Bellingham: 1+ goals + assists | 24% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 2+ shots | 23% |
| David Møller Wolfe: 1+ shots | 23% |
| Kristoffer Ajer: 1+ shots | 23% |
| Noni Madueke: 3+ shots | 23% |
| Declan Rice: 1+ shots on target | 23% |
| Elliot Anderson: 1+ shots on target | 23% |
| Marcus Pedersen: 1+ shots | 22% |
| Torbjørn Heggem: 1+ shots | 22% |
| Jude Bellingham: 2+ shots on target | 22% |
| Nico O’Reilly: 1+ shots on target | 22% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 1+ goals | 21% |
| Elliot Anderson: 2+ shots | 21% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 1+ goals + assists | 21% |
| Anthony Gordon: 1+ goals | 20% |
| Erling Haaland: 3+ shots on target | 20% |
| Bukayo Saka: 1+ goals | 19% |
| Anthony Gordon: 3+ shots | 19% |
| Erling Haaland: 5+ shots | 19% |
| Bukayo Saka: 1+ assists | 19% |
| Jude Bellingham: 1+ assists | 19% |
| Oscar Bobb: 1+ assists | 19% |
| Declan Rice: 1+ goals + assists | 19% |
| Harry Kane: 2+ goals | 18% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 3+ shots | 18% |
| Martin Ødegaard: 1+ assists | 18% |
| Harry Kane: 5+ shots | 17% |
| Jude Bellingham: 4+ shots | 17% |
| Noni Madueke: 4+ shots | 17% |
| Anthony Gordon: 1+ assists | 17% |
| Marcus Rashford: 1+ assists | 17% |
| Noni Madueke: 1+ assists | 17% |
| Elliot Anderson: 1+ goals + assists | 17% |
| Fredrik Aursnes: 2+ shots | 16% |
| Anthony Gordon: 2+ shots on target | 16% |
| Marc Guéhi: 1+ shots on target | 16% |
| Antonio Nusa: 1+ goals + assists | 16% |
| Ezri Konsa: 1+ shots on target | 15% |
| Anthony Gordon: 4+ shots | 14% |
| Antonio Nusa: 3+ shots | 14% |
| Declan Rice: 1+ assists | 14% |
| Harry Kane: 1+ assists | 14% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 2+ shots on target | 14% |
| David Møller Wolfe: 1+ shots on target | 14% |
| Kristoffer Ajer: 1+ shots on target | 14% |
| Sander Berge: 1+ shots on target | 14% |
| Torbjørn Heggem: 1+ shots on target | 14% |
| Erling Haaland: 2+ goals | 13% |
| David Møller Wolfe: 2+ shots | 13% |
| Martin Ødegaard: 3+ shots | 13% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Antonio Nusa: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Bukayo Saka: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Erling Haaland: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Marcus Rashford: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Martin Ødegaard: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Nico O’Reilly: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Noni Madueke: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Oscar Bobb: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Antonio Nusa: 2+ shots on target | 13% |
| Martin Ødegaard: 2+ shots on target | 13% |
| Antonio Nusa: 1+ goals | 12% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 4+ shots | 12% |
| Declan Rice: 2+ shots on target | 12% |
| Martin Ødegaard: 1+ goals | 11% |
| Nico O’Reilly: 2+ goals | 11% |
| Declan Rice: 3+ shots | 11% |
| Noni Madueke: 5+ shots | 11% |
| Anthony Gordon: 2+ assists | 11% |
| Nico O’Reilly: 1+ assists | 11% |
| Declan Rice: 1+ goals | 10% |
| Anthony Gordon: 5+ shots | 10% |
| Jude Bellingham: 5+ shots | 10% |
| Nico O’Reilly: 3+ shots | 10% |
| Nico O’Reilly: 1+ goals | 9% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 1+ assists | 9% |
| Antonio Nusa: 1+ assists | 9% |
| Elliot Anderson: 1+ assists | 9% |
| Eberechi Eze: 1+ goals | 8% |
| Marcus Rashford: 1+ goals | 8% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 5+ shots | 8% |
| Martin Ødegaard: 4+ shots | 8% |
| Erling Haaland: 1+ assists | 8% |
| Andreas Schjelderup: 1+ goals | 7% |
| Elliot Anderson: 1+ goals | 7% |
| Noni Madueke: 1+ goals | 7% |
| Antonio Nusa: 4+ shots | 7% |
| Elliot Anderson: 3+ shots | 7% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 1+ goals | 6% |
| Kristian Thorstvedt: 1+ goals | 6% |
| Morgan Rogers: 1+ goals | 6% |
| Oscar Bobb: 1+ goals | 6% |
| Declan Rice: 4+ shots | 6% |
| Martin Ødegaard: 5+ shots | 6% |
| Jude Bellingham: 2+ goals | 5% |
| Thelo Aasgaard: 1+ goals | 5% |
| Elliot Anderson: 4+ shots | 5% |
| Marc Guéhi: 1+ shots | 5% |
| Bukayo Saka: 2+ goals | 4% |
| Eberechi Eze: 2+ goals | 4% |
| Marcus Rashford: 2+ goals | 4% |
| Noni Madueke: 2+ goals | 4% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 3+ goals | 3% |
| Andreas Schjelderup: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Anthony Gordon: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Anthony Gordon: 3+ goals | 3% |
| Bukayo Saka: 3+ goals | 3% |
| Declan Rice: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Eberechi Eze: 3+ goals | 3% |
| Elliot Anderson: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Erling Haaland: 3+ goals | 3% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 3+ goals | 3% |
| Jude Bellingham: 3+ goals | 3% |
| Kristian Thorstvedt: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Marcus Rashford: 3+ goals | 3% |
| Martin Ødegaard: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Morgan Rogers: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Morgan Rogers: 3+ goals | 3% |
| Noni Madueke: 3+ goals | 3% |
| Oscar Bobb: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Thelo Aasgaard: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Declan Rice: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Harry Kane: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Jude Bellingham: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Antonio Nusa: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Harry Kane: 3+ goals | 2% |
| Nico O’Reilly: 4+ shots | 2% |
| Elliot Anderson: 2+ assists | 1% |
Markt-Kontext
Marktkonsens: 93% Chance für prognose: norway vs. england - player props. Prognosemärkte bündeln echtes Kapital zu diesem Wahrscheinlichkeitssignal. Player prop markets for the FIFA World Cup game between Norway and England, scheduled for July 11 at 5:00 PM ET.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Diese Übersicht vergleicht Prognose: Norway vs. England - Player Props über fünf Plattformen. Die Live-Wahrscheinlichkeit ist der Polymarket-Mid-Preis aus dem Polygon-Orderbuch; die Vergleichs-Spalten zeigen Gebührenstruktur, KYC-Schwellen, Settlement-Währung und Zahlungswege jeder Plattform. Alle CTAs leiten zu Polymarket Deutsch, das den Polymarket-Orderbuch zu 0 % Gebühren spiegelt.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Polymarket-basierte Märkte werden über das UMA Optimistic Oracle auf Polygon aufgelöst. Ein Vorschlagender reicht das Ergebnis ein, ein zweistündiges Einspruchsfenster öffnet sich, und unangefochtene Vorschläge schließen die Auflösung ab. Auszahlungen erfolgen automatisch in USDC, sobald das Ergebnis final ist — keine Buchhalter, keine Verzögerung.
Kalshi-basierte Märkte werden in USD über die CFTC-regulierte Settlement-Engine ausgezahlt. Betfair Exchange zahlt in GBP/EUR aus, abzüglich Kommission. Manifold ist Spielgeld und zahlt keine echten Beträge aus.
Häufige Fragen
- Wo kann ich diesen Markt am günstigsten handeln?
- Polymarket selbst ist global zugänglich, in DE/AT/CH allerdings geo-blockiert. Der einfachste Broker mit gleichem Orderbuch und 0 % Gebühr ist Polymarket Deutsch. Kalshi nimmt bis zu 7 % pro Trade, Betfair Exchange 2-5 % Kommission auf Gewinne.
- Wie funktioniert die Auflösung?
- Über das UMA Optimistic Oracle: ein Vorschlagender reicht das Ergebnis ein, ein zweistündiges Einspruchsfenster öffnet sich, USDC-Auszahlung erfolgt automatisch.
- Welche Gebühren fallen bei Polymarket an?
- Direkt am Polymarket-Orderbuch keine Gebühren — die einzigen Kosten sind Polygon-Netzwerkgebühren (typischerweise unter $0,01 pro Transaktion). Off-chain Plattformen wie Kalshi oder Betfair verlangen 2-7 % Kommission.
- Wie lange dauert eine USDC-Einzahlung?
- Auf Polygon werden Einzahlungen nach 12 Bestätigungen gutgeschrieben — in der Regel unter 30 Sekunden. Withdrawals folgen demselben Pfad und sind binnen Minuten auf Ihrer Wallet.
- Brauche ich KYC für diesen Markt?
- Auf Polymarket direkt nicht. Über vermittelnde Broker wie Polymarket Deutsch ist KYC erst ab $1.500 lebenslangem Trading-Volumen erforderlich — darunter handeln Sie pseudonym mit nur einer Wallet-Adresse.
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Jetzt „Prognose: Norway vs. England - Player Props" auf Polymarket Deutsch handeln
Live-Orderbuch, 0 % Gebühren, USDC-Auszahlung in Sekunden.
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