Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über Polymarket Deutsch) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
88% | 12% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Auf Polymarket ansehen → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
88% | 12% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Auf Polymarket ansehen → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Auf Polymarket ansehen → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Auf Polymarket ansehen → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Auf Polymarket ansehen → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| O/U 31.5 | 88% |
| O/U 37.5 | 78% |
| O/U 43.5 | 63% |
| TCU vs. UCF | 61% |
| TCU O/U 20.5 | 60% |
| Spread -1.5 | 57% |
| Spread -7.5 | 56% |
| Spread -2.5 | 56% |
| TCU O/U 26.5 | 52% |
| Spread -3.5 | 51% |
| TCU Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5 | 51% |
| TCU Total First Downs: O/U 19.5 | 51% |
| Spread -24.5 | 50% |
| Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| Spread -18.5 | 50% |
| Spread -12.5 | 50% |
| Spread -11.5 | 50% |
| Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| Spread -12.5 | 50% |
| O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| O/U 33.5 | 50% |
| O/U 35.5 | 50% |
| O/U 39.5 | 50% |
| O/U 41.5 | 50% |
| O/U 45.5 | 50% |
| O/U 57.5 | 50% |
| O/U 59.5 | 50% |
| O/U 63.5 | 50% |
| O/U 65.5 | 50% |
| O/U 69.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 18.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 30.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 18.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 27.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| TCU O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| TCU O/U 32.5 | 50% |
| UCF O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| UCF O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| UCF O/U 26.5 | 50% |
| UCF O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| TCU 1H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| TCU 1H O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| TCU 1H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| UCF 1H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| UCF 1H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| UCF 1H O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| TCU 2H O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| TCU 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| TCU 2H O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| UCF 2H O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| UCF 2H O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| UCF 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| 2H Moneyline | 50% |
| TCU O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| UCF O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| 1H Moneyline | 50% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q2 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 2H | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 1H | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q1 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q3 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q1 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q4 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q3 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q2 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q4 | 50% |
| Kickoff or Punt Return Touchdown | 50% |
| Pick-Six Scored | 50% |
| TCU vs. UCF: Total Touchdowns O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Game Goes to Overtime | 50% |
| TCU vs. UCF: Total Touchdowns O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| TCU Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| TCU vs. UCF: Total Touchdowns O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| TCU Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| UCF Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| TCU Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| UCF Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| UCF Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| TCU Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5 | 50% |
| TCU Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5 | 50% |
| UCF Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5 | 50% |
| TCU Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5 | 50% |
| UCF Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5 | 50% |
| UCF Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5 | 50% |
| TCU Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5 | 50% |
| TCU Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5 | 50% |
| UCF Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5 | 50% |
| UCF Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5 | 50% |
| UCF Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5 | 50% |
| TCU Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| TCU Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5 | 50% |
| TCU Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5 | 50% |
| UCF Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| UCF Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5 | 50% |
| UCF Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5 | 50% |
| TCU 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| TCU 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| UCF 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| UCF 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| TCU Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| TCU Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| TCU Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| UCF Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| UCF Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| TCU Total Receptions: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| UCF Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| TCU Total Receptions: O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| TCU Total Receptions: O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| UCF Total Receptions: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| UCF Total Receptions: O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| TCU Total First Downs: O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| UCF Total Receptions: O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| UCF Total First Downs: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| UCF Total First Downs: O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| TCU Total First Downs: O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| TCU vs. UCF: Total 4th Down Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| UCF Total First Downs: O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| TCU vs. UCF: Total Successful Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| TCU vs. UCF: Total Defensive/Special Teams Touchdowns O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 49% |
| 2H O/U 30.5 | 49% |
| TCU O/U 23.5 | 49% |
| Spread -5.5 | 48% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 48% |
| O/U 47.5 | 47% |
| O/U 49.5 | 46% |
| 1H O/U 24.5 | 46% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 46% |
| UCF O/U 23.5 | 46% |
| Spread -6.5 | 45% |
| Spread -10.5 | 45% |
| Spread -4.5 | 44% |
| Spread -1.5 | 42% |
| Spread -13.5 | 42% |
| Spread -16.5 | 42% |
| Spread -6.5 | 41% |
| O/U 51.5 | 40% |
| Spread -17.5 | 39% |
| 1H O/U 27.5 | 39% |
| Spread -2.5 | 38% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 37% |
| Spread -3.5 | 35% |
| Spread -9.5 | 33% |
| O/U 55.5 | 33% |
| Spread -9.5 | 32% |
| O/U 53.5 | 32% |
| Spread -10.5 | 28% |
| Spread -14.5 | 24% |
| Spread -4.5 | 22% |
| O/U 61.5 | 21% |
| Spread -20.5 | 18% |
| O/U 67.5 | 13% |
Markt-Kontext
TCU vs. UCF. The market is currently pricing the outcome at 61% YES, meaning crowd-implied probability sits at that level. Settlement is scheduled for 2026-09-26T19:30:00Z. Unlike a sportsbook, the price you see is set by buyers and sellers competing in a live order book — there is no house edge or bookmaker margin to fade.
Sports outcome markets resolve from official league data once the contest finishes. Pricing typically tightens through the warm-up window as line-ups, weather, and starting-pitcher data become public, then moves on goals or runs in real time.
Watch for the underlying catalysts that move this category: each official announcement, dataset release, or scheduled milestone generally produces a step change in the implied probability. Trades execute instantly on Polygon, and shares pay $1 each at resolution if your side wins.
Live-Daten & Statistiken
Live-Statistiken werden geladen, sobald das Spiel beginnt. Aktuelle Quoten sind oben verfügbar. Handelsvolumen: $344K.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Methodisch unterscheiden wir zwei Schichten: die Live-Wahrscheinlichkeit (Polymarket-Mid-Preis) und die Plattform-Attribute (Gebühren, KYC, Auszahlung, Settlement-Währung). Eine kanonische Wahrscheinlichkeit über die Zeile, die Anbieter-spezifischen Trade-offs in den Spalten — sauber, vergleichbar, ohne Marketing-Lärm.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Polymarket-basierte Märkte werden über das UMA Optimistic Oracle auf Polygon aufgelöst. Ein Vorschlagender reicht das Ergebnis ein, ein zweistündiges Einspruchsfenster öffnet sich, und unangefochtene Vorschläge schließen die Auflösung ab. Auszahlungen erfolgen automatisch in USDC, sobald das Ergebnis final ist — keine Buchhalter, keine Verzögerung.
Kalshi-basierte Märkte werden in USD über die CFTC-regulierte Settlement-Engine ausgezahlt. Betfair Exchange zahlt in GBP/EUR aus, abzüglich Kommission. Manifold ist Spielgeld und zahlt keine echten Beträge aus.
Häufige Fragen
- Wo kann ich diesen Markt am günstigsten handeln?
- Polymarket selbst ist global zugänglich, in DE/AT/CH allerdings geo-blockiert. Der einfachste Broker mit gleichem Orderbuch und 0 % Gebühr ist Polymarket Deutsch. Kalshi nimmt bis zu 7 % pro Trade, Betfair Exchange 2-5 % Kommission auf Gewinne.
- Wie funktioniert die Auflösung?
- Über das UMA Optimistic Oracle: ein Vorschlagender reicht das Ergebnis ein, ein zweistündiges Einspruchsfenster öffnet sich, USDC-Auszahlung erfolgt automatisch.
- Was ist der Unterschied zwischen YES- und NO-Anteilen?
- Ein YES-Anteil zahlt $1,00 bei Eintritt des Ereignisses, sonst $0. Ein NO-Anteil zahlt $1,00, wenn das Ereignis nicht eintritt. Der Marktpreis zwischen 0¢ und 100¢ ist die implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit.
- Welche Gebühren fallen bei Polymarket an?
- Direkt am Polymarket-Orderbuch keine Gebühren — die einzigen Kosten sind Polygon-Netzwerkgebühren (typischerweise unter $0,01 pro Transaktion). Off-chain Plattformen wie Kalshi oder Betfair verlangen 2-7 % Kommission.
- Brauche ich KYC für diesen Markt?
- Auf Polymarket direkt nicht. Über vermittelnde Broker wie Polymarket Deutsch ist KYC erst ab $1.500 lebenslangem Trading-Volumen erforderlich — darunter handeln Sie pseudonym mit nur einer Wallet-Adresse.
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Jetzt „Prognose: TCU vs. UCF" auf Polymarket Deutsch handeln
Live-Orderbuch, 0 % Gebühren, USDC-Auszahlung in Sekunden.
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