Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über Polymarket Deutsch) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
96% | 4% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Auf Polymarket ansehen → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
96% | 4% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Auf Polymarket ansehen → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Auf Polymarket ansehen → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Auf Polymarket ansehen → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Auf Polymarket ansehen → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| O/U 202.5 | 96% |
| O/U 204.5 | 95% |
| O/U 206.5 | 94% |
| O/U 208.5 | 94% |
| O/U 210.5 | 92% |
| O/U 212.5 | 90% |
| O/U 214.5 | 87% |
| 76ers O/U 112.5 | 86% |
| O/U 216.5 | 85% |
| O/U 218.5 | 81% |
| Spread -2.5 | 80% |
| 76ers O/U 114.5 | 80% |
| O/U 220.5 | 78% |
| 1H O/U 107.5 | 77% |
| Spread -4.5 | 75% |
| 1Q O/U 48.5 | 75% |
| O/U 222.5 | 74% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 74% |
| O/U 224.5 | 71% |
| 1H O/U 103.5 | 71% |
| 1Q O/U 50.5 | 71% |
| Spread -6.5 | 69% |
| 1H O/U 109.5 | 69% |
| O/U 226.5 | 68% |
| 76ers O/U 118.5 | 68% |
| 1H O/U 105.5 | 67% |
| Spread -7.5 | 66% |
| 1H O/U 111.5 | 66% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 65% |
| Spread -8.5 | 64% |
| O/U 228.5 | 64% |
| 1H O/U 113.5 | 62% |
| 76ers O/U 120.5 | 62% |
| Spread -9.5 | 61% |
| Ryan Rollins: Assists O/U 3.5 | 59% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 59% |
| 1Q O/U 54.5 | 59% |
| Spread -10.5 | 58% |
| Bucks O/U 108.5 | 58% |
| O/U 230.5 | 57% |
| Joel Embiid: Points O/U 19.5 | 57% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 57% |
| O/U 232.5 | 56% |
| Tyrese Maxey: Assists O/U 5.5 | 56% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 56% |
| 2Q O/U 55.5 | 56% |
| Spread -11.5 | 55% |
| Kyle Kuzma: Points O/U 9.5 | 55% |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr.: Assists O/U 3.5 | 54% |
| Tyler Herro: Points O/U 19.5 | 54% |
| Jaylen Brown: Assists O/U 3.5 | 54% |
| 1H O/U 115.5 | 54% |
| Myles Turner: Points O/U 9.5 | 53% |
| Spread -12.5 | 51% |
| O/U 234.5 | 51% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 51% |
| Ryan Rollins: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 51% |
| Kyle Kuzma: Points O/U 4.5 | 51% |
| Joel Embiid: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 51% |
| Bucks O/U 104.5 | 51% |
| Team to Score First | 50% |
| Odd/Even Score | 50% |
| Overtime? | 50% |
| Race to 10 | 50% |
| Race to 20 | 50% |
| Race to 30 | 50% |
| Tyler Herro: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Myles Turner: Points O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Tyler Herro: Points O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr.: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Kyle Kuzma: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Myles Turner: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Ryan Rollins: Assists O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Tyler Herro: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Jaylen Brown: Points O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Joel Embiid: Points O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Joel Embiid: Points O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Tyrese Maxey: Points O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Tyrese Maxey: Points O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Jaylen Brown: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Joel Embiid: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Joel Embiid: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Tyrese Maxey: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| VJ Edgecombe: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Tyrese Maxey: Assists O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Myles Turner: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Tyrese Maxey: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Jaylen Brown: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Jaylen Brown: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Jaylen Brown: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Ryan Rollins: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Ryan Rollins: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Ryan Rollins: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Tyrese Maxey: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Tyrese Maxey: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Tyrese Maxey: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| VJ Edgecombe: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| VJ Edgecombe: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| VJ Edgecombe: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Joel Embiid: Blocks O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Joel Embiid: Blocks O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Joel Embiid: Blocks O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Myles Turner: Blocks O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Myles Turner: Blocks O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Myles Turner: Blocks O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr.: Points O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 58.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 58.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 52.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 54.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 56.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 60.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 62.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 64.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 53.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 55.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 57.5 | 50% |
| Bucks O/U 102.5 | 50% |
| Bucks O/U 106.5 | 50% |
| Bucks O/U 110.5 | 50% |
| Bucks O/U 114.5 | 50% |
| Bucks O/U 116.5 | 50% |
| Bucks O/U 118.5 | 50% |
| Bucks O/U 122.5 | 50% |
| Bucks O/U 98.5 | 50% |
| Bucks 1H O/U 52.5 | 50% |
| Bucks 1H O/U 54.5 | 50% |
| Bucks 1H O/U 56.5 | 50% |
| Bucks 1H O/U 58.5 | 50% |
| 76ers 2H O/U 66.5 | 50% |
| Bucks 1H O/U 60.5 | 50% |
| 76ers 1H O/U 67.5 | 50% |
| 76ers O/U 136.5 | 50% |
| Bucks 2H O/U 51.5 | 50% |
| Bucks 2H O/U 53.5 | 50% |
| Bucks 2H O/U 55.5 | 50% |
| Bucks 2H O/U 57.5 | 50% |
| Bucks 2H O/U 59.5 | 50% |
| 76ers 1H O/U 59.5 | 50% |
| 76ers 1H O/U 61.5 | 50% |
| 76ers 1H O/U 63.5 | 50% |
| 76ers 1H O/U 65.5 | 50% |
| 76ers 2H O/U 58.5 | 50% |
| 76ers 2H O/U 60.5 | 50% |
| 76ers 2H O/U 62.5 | 50% |
| 76ers 2H O/U 64.5 | 50% |
| Tyler Herro: Points O/U 20.5 | 49% |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr.: Points O/U 24.5 | 49% |
| Kyle Kuzma: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 49% |
| Myles Turner: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 49% |
| Tyrese Maxey: Points O/U 39.5 | 49% |
| Joel Embiid: Assists O/U 1.5 | 49% |
| Joel Embiid: Assists O/U 9.5 | 49% |
| Joel Embiid: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 49% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 49% |
| 2Q O/U 57.5 | 49% |
| Bucks O/U 100.5 | 49% |
| 76ers O/U 124.5 | 49% |
| Tyrese Maxey: Points O/U 24.5 | 48% |
| Tyrese Maxey: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 48% |
| Tyler Herro: Points O/U 34.5 | 48% |
| Ryan Rollins: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 48% |
| Tyler Herro: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 48% |
| Tyler Herro: Assists O/U 1.5 | 48% |
| Joel Embiid: Points O/U 34.5 | 48% |
| Joel Embiid: Points O/U 39.5 | 48% |
| Jaylen Brown: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 48% |
| Joel Embiid: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 48% |
| Jaylen Brown: Assists O/U 1.5 | 48% |
| Tyler Herro: Points O/U 39.5 | 48% |
| 1H O/U 117.5 | 48% |
| 1Q O/U 52.5 | 48% |
| Bucks O/U 120.5 | 48% |
| Spread -13.5 | 47% |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr.: Assists O/U 1.5 | 47% |
| Jaylen Brown: Points O/U 14.5 | 47% |
| Jaylen Brown: Assists O/U 9.5 | 47% |
| VJ Edgecombe: Assists O/U 1.5 | 47% |
| Tyler Herro: 3-Pointers Made O/U 6.5 | 47% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 47% |
| O/U 236.5 | 46% |
| Ryan Rollins: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 46% |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr.: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 45% |
| Ryan Rollins: Assists O/U 9.5 | 45% |
| Ryan Rollins: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 45% |
| Jaylen Brown: Points O/U 34.5 | 45% |
| Jaylen Brown: Points O/U 39.5 | 45% |
| VJ Edgecombe: Points O/U 24.5 | 45% |
| Joel Embiid: Rebounds O/U 13.5 | 45% |
| Joel Embiid: Rebounds O/U 15.5 | 45% |
| VJ Edgecombe: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 45% |
| Tyrese Maxey: Assists O/U 3.5 | 45% |
| Ryan Rollins: 3-Pointers Made O/U 5.5 | 45% |
| Bucks O/U 112.5 | 45% |
| Jaylen Brown: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 44% |
| Tyrese Maxey: Assists O/U 11.5 | 44% |
| Joel Embiid: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 44% |
| VJ Edgecombe: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 44% |
| Spread -14.5 | 43% |
| Ryan Rollins: Points O/U 9.5 | 43% |
| Myles Turner: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 43% |
| Tyrese Maxey: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 43% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 43% |
| 1Q O/U 56.5 | 43% |
| 1H O/U 119.5 | 42% |
| Ryan Rollins: Points O/U 14.5 | 42% |
| Tyler Herro: Points O/U 14.5 | 42% |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr.: Assists O/U 9.5 | 42% |
| O/U 238.5 | 41% |
| Myles Turner: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 41% |
| Myles Turner: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 41% |
| Tyler Herro: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 41% |
| Jaylen Brown: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 41% |
| Tyrese Maxey: 3-Pointers Made O/U 6.5 | 41% |
| 76ers O/U 116.5 | 41% |
| Spread -15.5 | 40% |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr.: Points O/U 9.5 | 40% |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr.: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 40% |
| Kyle Kuzma: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 40% |
| Tyler Herro: Assists O/U 9.5 | 40% |
| Jaylen Brown: Points O/U 19.5 | 40% |
| Tyrese Maxey: Assists O/U 6.5 | 40% |
| VJ Edgecombe: Points O/U 9.5 | 39% |
| Spread -16.5 | 38% |
| Kyle Kuzma: Points O/U 24.5 | 38% |
| Tyrese Maxey: Points O/U 19.5 | 38% |
| Jaylen Brown: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 38% |
| 1H O/U 121.5 | 38% |
| O/U 240.5 | 37% |
| Tyler Herro: Assists O/U 3.5 | 37% |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr.: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 37% |
| Kyle Kuzma: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 37% |
| Joel Embiid: Assists O/U 3.5 | 37% |
| Ryan Rollins: Points O/U 29.5 | 37% |
| 2Q O/U 59.5 | 37% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 37% |
| Spread -17.5 | 36% |
| Jaylen Brown: Points O/U 24.5 | 36% |
| 1H O/U 123.5 | 36% |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr.: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 35% |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr.: Points O/U 14.5 | 35% |
| VJ Edgecombe: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 35% |
| 1H Spread -11.5 | 35% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 35% |
| O/U 242.5 | 34% |
| 1Q O/U 60.5 | 34% |
| Kyle Kuzma: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 33% |
| 2Q Spread -5.5 | 33% |
| Spread -18.5 | 32% |
| Kyle Kuzma: Points O/U 10.5 | 32% |
| Ryan Rollins: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 32% |
| 2Q O/U 61.5 | 32% |
| 76ers O/U 122.5 | 32% |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr.: Points O/U 13.5 | 31% |
| Ryan Rollins: Assists O/U 4.5 | 31% |
| Ryan Rollins: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 31% |
| Tyrese Maxey: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 31% |
| Myles Turner: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 30% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 30% |
| 76ers O/U 130.5 | 30% |
| Tyler Herro: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 29% |
| O/U 244.5 | 28% |
| Tyler Herro: Assists O/U 4.5 | 28% |
| Joel Embiid: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 28% |
| VJ Edgecombe: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 28% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 28% |
| 1Q O/U 62.5 | 28% |
| Spread -20.5 | 27% |
| Joel Embiid: Points O/U 24.5 | 27% |
| Tyrese Maxey: Points O/U 29.5 | 27% |
| VJ Edgecombe: Points O/U 14.5 | 27% |
| Jaylen Brown: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 27% |
| 2Q O/U 63.5 | 27% |
| O/U 246.5 | 26% |
| Joel Embiid: Assists O/U 4.5 | 26% |
| Jaylen Brown: Assists O/U 4.5 | 26% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 26% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 26% |
| Tyrese Maxey: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 24% |
| 76ers O/U 132.5 | 24% |
| Spread -22.5 | 23% |
| 1H Moneyline | 23% |
| Joel Embiid: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 23% |
| 1Q Spread -8.5 | 23% |
| O/U 248.5 | 22% |
| 1H Spread -15.5 | 22% |
| Jaylen Brown: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 21% |
| VJ Edgecombe: Assists O/U 3.5 | 21% |
| 1H O/U 125.5 | 21% |
| Tyler Herro: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 20% |
| Spread -24.5 | 19% |
| O/U 250.5 | 19% |
| Kyle Kuzma: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 19% |
| Ryan Rollins: Assists O/U 5.5 | 19% |
| Kyle Kuzma: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 19% |
| VJ Edgecombe: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 19% |
| 1H O/U 127.5 | 19% |
| 1H O/U 129.5 | 19% |
| Tyler Herro: Points O/U 24.5 | 18% |
| Myles Turner: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 18% |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr.: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 18% |
| Tyler Herro: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 18% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 18% |
| 76ers O/U 134.5 | 18% |
| Ryan Rollins: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 17% |
| VJ Edgecombe: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 17% |
| Tyrese Maxey: Assists O/U 7.5 | 17% |
| 1H O/U 131.5 | 17% |
| Bucks vs. 76ers | 16% |
| Spread -26.5 | 16% |
| Kyle Kuzma: Points O/U 14.5 | 16% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 16% |
| 1H O/U 133.5 | 16% |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr.: Assists O/U 5.5 | 15% |
| Tyler Herro: Assists O/U 5.5 | 15% |
| Joel Embiid: Assists O/U 5.5 | 15% |
| Spread -1.5 | 14% |
| Ryan Rollins: Points O/U 19.5 | 14% |
| Joel Embiid: Points O/U 29.5 | 14% |
| Jaylen Brown: Assists O/U 5.5 | 14% |
| Jaylen Brown: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 14% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 14% |
| 1H O/U 135.5 | 14% |
| Myles Turner: Points O/U 14.5 | 13% |
| Joel Embiid: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 13% |
| Spread -28.5 | 12% |
| Jaylen Brown: Points O/U 29.5 | 12% |
| Tyrese Maxey: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 12% |
| Tyler Herro: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 12% |
| Tyrese Maxey: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 12% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 12% |
| 1H Spread -19.5 | 12% |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr.: Points O/U 19.5 | 11% |
| Tyler Herro: Points O/U 29.5 | 11% |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr.: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 11% |
| Jaylen Brown: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 11% |
| Tyler Herro: 3-Pointers Made O/U 5.5 | 11% |
| Tyrese Maxey: 3-Pointers Made O/U 5.5 | 11% |
| Spread -3.5 | 10% |
| Kyle Kuzma: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 10% |
| VJ Edgecombe: Points O/U 19.5 | 10% |
| VJ Edgecombe: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 10% |
| Myles Turner: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 10% |
| Ryan Rollins: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 10% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 10% |
| Spread -30.5 | 9% |
| Spread -5.5 | 9% |
| Ryan Rollins: Assists O/U 7.5 | 9% |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr.: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 9% |
| Kyle Kuzma: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 9% |
| VJ Edgecombe: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 9% |
| Tyrese Maxey: Assists O/U 9.5 | 9% |
| Joel Embiid: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 9% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 9% |
| Tyler Herro: Assists O/U 7.5 | 8% |
| Tyrese Maxey: Points O/U 34.5 | 8% |
| Jaylen Brown: Assists O/U 7.5 | 8% |
| VJ Edgecombe: Assists O/U 5.5 | 8% |
| VJ Edgecombe: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 8% |
| 1H Spread -23.5 | 8% |
| Spread -32.5 | 7% |
| Spread -7.5 | 7% |
| Joel Embiid: Assists O/U 7.5 | 7% |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr.: Assists O/U 7.5 | 7% |
| Jaylen Brown: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 7% |
| Ryan Rollins: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 7% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 7% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 7% |
| 1H Spread -25.5 | 7% |
| Spread -34.5 | 6% |
| Kyle Kuzma: Points O/U 19.5 | 6% |
| Ryan Rollins: Points O/U 24.5 | 6% |
| Myles Turner: Points O/U 19.5 | 6% |
| Tyrese Maxey: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 6% |
| Ryan Rollins: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 6% |
| Tyler Herro: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 6% |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr.: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 6% |
| Jaylen Brown: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 6% |
| Joel Embiid: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 6% |
| Kyle Kuzma: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 6% |
| Myles Turner: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 6% |
| VJ Edgecombe: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 6% |
| Spread -9.5 | 5% |
| Spread -38.5 | 4% |
| Spread -40.5 | 4% |
| Spread -11.5 | 4% |
| Spread -13.5 | 3% |
| Spread -15.5 | 2% |
Markt-Kontext
Live-Daten von Polymarket zeigen 96% Ja-Wahrscheinlichkeit für Prognose: Bucks vs. 76ers. In the upcoming NBA game, scheduled for October 24 at 7:30PM ET: If the Bucks win, the market will resolve to "Bucks". If the 76ers win, the market will resolve to "76ers". If the game is postponed, t…
Live-Daten & Statistiken
Live-Statistiken werden geladen, sobald das Spiel beginnt. Aktuelle Quoten sind oben verfügbar. Handelsvolumen: $135K.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Methodisch unterscheiden wir zwei Schichten: die Live-Wahrscheinlichkeit (Polymarket-Mid-Preis) und die Plattform-Attribute (Gebühren, KYC, Auszahlung, Settlement-Währung). Eine kanonische Wahrscheinlichkeit über die Zeile, die Anbieter-spezifischen Trade-offs in den Spalten — sauber, vergleichbar, ohne Marketing-Lärm.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Die Auflösung läuft on-chain. Polymarkets Vertragslogik trennt YES- und NO-Anteile als Conditional Tokens; bei Auflösung werden die richtigen Anteile zu 100¢ und die anderen zu 0¢. Die Outcome-Eingabe kommt vom UMA Optimistic Oracle, das mit einem Bond-System gegen falsche Auflösung absichert.
Sobald die Auflösung durch ist, hebt der Smart Contract alle gewinnenden Anteile zu USDC und schickt die Beträge an die Wallets der Inhaber. Das geschieht binnen Minuten der finalen Bestätigung — ohne Auszahlungsgebühren über die Polygon-Netzwerkkosten hinaus.
Häufige Fragen
- Wo kann ich diesen Markt am günstigsten handeln?
- Polymarket selbst ist global zugänglich, in DE/AT/CH allerdings geo-blockiert. Der einfachste Broker mit gleichem Orderbuch und 0 % Gebühr ist Polymarket Deutsch. Kalshi nimmt bis zu 7 % pro Trade, Betfair Exchange 2-5 % Kommission auf Gewinne.
- Sind Prediction-Märkte in Deutschland legal?
- Prediction-Märkte befinden sich in Deutschland in einem rechtlichen Graubereich. Polymarket selbst ist in Deutschland geo-blockiert. Handeln Sie nur mit Kapital, dessen Verlust Sie verkraften können, und prüfen Sie die rechtliche Lage für Ihre Jurisdiktion.
- Wie funktioniert die Auflösung?
- Über das UMA Optimistic Oracle: ein Vorschlagender reicht das Ergebnis ein, ein zweistündiges Einspruchsfenster öffnet sich, USDC-Auszahlung erfolgt automatisch.
- Welche Gebühren fallen bei Polymarket an?
- Direkt am Polymarket-Orderbuch keine Gebühren — die einzigen Kosten sind Polygon-Netzwerkgebühren (typischerweise unter $0,01 pro Transaktion). Off-chain Plattformen wie Kalshi oder Betfair verlangen 2-7 % Kommission.
- Wie verlässlich sind die angezeigten Quoten?
- Die YES/NO-Prozentsätze sind die Live-Mid-Preise des Polymarket-Orderbuchs. Auf Märkten mit hoher Liquidität bewegen sich diese Werte sekündlich; bei dünneren Märkten sehen Sie kurze Plateaus.
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