Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über Polymarket Deutsch) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
94% | 6% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Auf Polymarket ansehen → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
94% | 6% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Auf Polymarket ansehen → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Auf Polymarket ansehen → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Auf Polymarket ansehen → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Auf Polymarket ansehen → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| O/U 213.5 | 94% |
| O/U 215.5 | 94% |
| O/U 217.5 | 93% |
| O/U 219.5 | 92% |
| O/U 221.5 | 90% |
| O/U 223.5 | 87% |
| O/U 225.5 | 85% |
| Bulls O/U 110.5 | 83% |
| O/U 227.5 | 82% |
| O/U 229.5 | 79% |
| Anthony Davis: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 78% |
| Bulls O/U 112.5 | 78% |
| O/U 230.5 | 77% |
| 1Q O/U 59.5 | 77% |
| O/U 231.5 | 76% |
| O/U 233.5 | 73% |
| Bulls O/U 114.5 | 73% |
| O/U 235.5 | 69% |
| O/U 236.5 | 67% |
| Bulls O/U 116.5 | 67% |
| 1H O/U 109.5 | 66% |
| 1H O/U 117.5 | 66% |
| O/U 237.5 | 65% |
| 1H O/U 113.5 | 64% |
| 1H O/U 121.5 | 63% |
| 1H O/U 111.5 | 63% |
| O/U 238.5 | 62% |
| 1H O/U 115.5 | 62% |
| Bulls O/U 118.5 | 62% |
| O/U 239.5 | 61% |
| 1H O/U 119.5 | 61% |
| 1Q O/U 61.5 | 57% |
| O/U 241.5 | 56% |
| 1H O/U 123.5 | 56% |
| Bulls O/U 120.5 | 56% |
| O/U 242.5 | 55% |
| Caleb Wilson: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 55% |
| Norman Powell: Assists O/U 1.5 | 55% |
| Trae Young: Points O/U 19.5 | 54% |
| O/U 243.5 | 53% |
| 1H Moneyline | 51% |
| Norman Powell: Points O/U 19.5 | 51% |
| Norman Powell: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 51% |
| Norman Powell: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 51% |
| Kyshawn George: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 51% |
| Bulls 1H O/U 64.5 | 51% |
| Team to Score First | 50% |
| Odd/Even Score | 50% |
| Overtime? | 50% |
| Race to 10 | 50% |
| Race to 20 | 50% |
| Race to 30 | 50% |
| O/U 244.5 | 50% |
| Caleb Wilson: Assists O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Anthony Davis: Points O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Trae Young: Points O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Anthony Davis: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Anthony Davis: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Caleb Wilson: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Caleb Wilson: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Trae Young: Assists O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Trae Young: Assists O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Trae Young: Assists O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Caleb Wilson: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Trae Young: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Trae Young: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Trae Young: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Trae Young: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Anthony Davis: Blocks O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Anthony Davis: Blocks O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Anthony Davis: Blocks O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Norman Powell: Points O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Caleb Wilson: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Norman Powell: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Norman Powell: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Norman Powell: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Norman Powell: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Norman Powell: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Josh Giddey: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Matas Buzelis: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Josh Giddey: Assists O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Josh Giddey: Assists O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Josh Giddey: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Matas Buzelis: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Norman Powell: 3-Pointers Made O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Norman Powell: 3-Pointers Made O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Josh Giddey: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Josh Giddey: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Josh Giddey: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Matas Buzelis: Blocks O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Matas Buzelis: Blocks O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Matas Buzelis: Blocks O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Kyshawn George: Points O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| Jalen Smith: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Jalen Smith: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Kyshawn George: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Jalen Smith: Blocks O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Jalen Smith: Blocks O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Jalen Smith: Blocks O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 65.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 51.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 53.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 55.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 57.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 61.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 57.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 59.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 63.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 65.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 60.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 54.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 56.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 58.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 62.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 64.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 66.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 55.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 57.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 59.5 | 50% |
| Bulls 1H O/U 58.5 | 50% |
| Bulls 1H O/U 60.5 | 50% |
| Bulls 1H O/U 62.5 | 50% |
| Wizards vs. Bulls | 49% |
| Spread -1.5 | 49% |
| 1H Spread -0.5 | 49% |
| 1H O/U 125.5 | 49% |
| Matas Buzelis: Points O/U 14.5 | 49% |
| Josh Giddey: Points O/U 9.5 | 49% |
| Jalen Smith: Rebounds O/U 13.5 | 49% |
| Jalen Smith: Rebounds O/U 15.5 | 49% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 49% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 49% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 49% |
| 1H Spread -12.5 | 49% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 49% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 49% |
| 1H Spread -18.5 | 49% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 49% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 49% |
| 1H Spread -11.5 | 49% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 49% |
| 1H Spread -15.5 | 49% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 49% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 49% |
| 1Q O/U 63.5 | 49% |
| Bulls O/U 122.5 | 49% |
| Anthony Davis: Points O/U 14.5 | 48% |
| Anthony Davis: Points O/U 34.5 | 48% |
| Anthony Davis: Points O/U 39.5 | 48% |
| Caleb Wilson: Points O/U 9.5 | 48% |
| Norman Powell: Rebounds O/U 2.5 | 48% |
| Norman Powell: Points O/U 34.5 | 48% |
| Josh Giddey: Points O/U 24.5 | 48% |
| Josh Giddey: Assists O/U 5.5 | 48% |
| Josh Giddey: Assists O/U 15.5 | 48% |
| Caleb Wilson: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 48% |
| Trae Young: 3-Pointers Made O/U 5.5 | 48% |
| Josh Giddey: Rebounds O/U 13.5 | 48% |
| Trae Young: Points O/U 34.5 | 47% |
| Anthony Davis: Rebounds O/U 17.5 | 47% |
| Josh Giddey: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 47% |
| Trae Young: 3-Pointers Made O/U 6.5 | 47% |
| Kyshawn George: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 47% |
| Caleb Wilson: Points O/U 34.5 | 47% |
| Trae Young: Points O/U 39.5 | 47% |
| Spread -1.5 | 46% |
| Anthony Davis: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 46% |
| Trae Young: Assists O/U 7.5 | 46% |
| O/U 246.5 | 45% |
| Spread -2.5 | 45% |
| Caleb Wilson: Points O/U 29.5 | 45% |
| Caleb Wilson: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 45% |
| Trae Young: Assists O/U 17.5 | 45% |
| Matas Buzelis: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 45% |
| Kyshawn George: Points O/U 14.5 | 45% |
| Kyshawn George: 3-Pointers Made O/U 5.5 | 45% |
| Trae Young: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 44% |
| Kyshawn George: Assists O/U 1.5 | 44% |
| Spread -2.5 | 43% |
| Trae Young: Points O/U 14.5 | 43% |
| Norman Powell: Points O/U 14.5 | 43% |
| Kyshawn George: Points O/U 9.5 | 43% |
| Jalen Smith: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 43% |
| Jalen Smith: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 43% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 43% |
| 1H O/U 127.5 | 43% |
| Bulls O/U 124.5 | 43% |
| Spread -3.5 | 42% |
| Trae Young: Assists O/U 11.5 | 42% |
| Trae Young: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 42% |
| Matas Buzelis: Points O/U 9.5 | 42% |
| Jalen Smith: Points O/U 9.5 | 42% |
| Anthony Davis: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 41% |
| Anthony Davis: Assists O/U 1.5 | 41% |
| Trae Young: Assists O/U 9.5 | 41% |
| Josh Giddey: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 41% |
| Matas Buzelis: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 41% |
| Josh Giddey: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 41% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 41% |
| Spread -3.5 | 40% |
| O/U 249.5 | 40% |
| Spread -4.5 | 40% |
| Anthony Davis: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 39% |
| Anthony Davis: Assists O/U 2.5 | 38% |
| Josh Giddey: Assists O/U 7.5 | 38% |
| Bulls O/U 126.5 | 38% |
| Spread -4.5 | 37% |
| Anthony Davis: Points O/U 19.5 | 37% |
| Caleb Wilson: Points O/U 14.5 | 36% |
| 1H O/U 129.5 | 36% |
| Spread -5.5 | 35% |
| Jalen Smith: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 35% |
| Josh Giddey: Assists O/U 9.5 | 34% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 34% |
| Spread -6.5 | 33% |
| O/U 252.5 | 33% |
| Anthony Davis: Points O/U 22.5 | 33% |
| Josh Giddey: Rebounds O/U 6.5 | 33% |
| Matas Buzelis: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 33% |
| Kyshawn George: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 33% |
| Spread -6.5 | 32% |
| Trae Young: Points O/U 20.5 | 32% |
| Josh Giddey: Points O/U 12.5 | 32% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 32% |
| Bulls O/U 128.5 | 32% |
| Caleb Wilson: Points O/U 17.5 | 31% |
| Norman Powell: Points O/U 20.5 | 31% |
| Caleb Wilson: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 31% |
| Kyshawn George: Assists O/U 3.5 | 31% |
| Matas Buzelis: Assists O/U 1.5 | 31% |
| Spread -7.5 | 30% |
| Norman Powell: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 29% |
| Spread -8.5 | 28% |
| Trae Young: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 28% |
| Spread -9.5 | 27% |
| O/U 255.5 | 27% |
| Jalen Smith: Points O/U 14.5 | 27% |
| Anthony Davis: Points O/U 23.5 | 27% |
| Bulls O/U 130.5 | 27% |
| Jalen Smith: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 26% |
| Spread -9.5 | 25% |
| Josh Giddey: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 24% |
| Kyshawn George: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 24% |
| Spread -10.5 | 23% |
| Anthony Davis: Points O/U 24.5 | 23% |
| Josh Giddey: Points O/U 14.5 | 23% |
| Josh Giddey: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 23% |
| Jalen Smith: Assists O/U 1.5 | 23% |
| 1H O/U 131.5 | 23% |
| Caleb Wilson: Points O/U 19.5 | 22% |
| Norman Powell: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 22% |
| Bulls O/U 132.5 | 22% |
| Spread -11.5 | 21% |
| Matas Buzelis: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 21% |
| 1H O/U 133.5 | 21% |
| Anthony Davis: Assists O/U 3.5 | 20% |
| Jalen Smith: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 20% |
| Spread -12.5 | 19% |
| Spread -12.5 | 19% |
| Trae Young: Points O/U 24.5 | 18% |
| Caleb Wilson: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 18% |
| Trae Young: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 18% |
| Norman Powell: Points O/U 24.5 | 18% |
| 1H O/U 135.5 | 18% |
| 1H O/U 137.5 | 17% |
| Bulls O/U 134.5 | 17% |
| Spread -13.5 | 16% |
| Anthony Davis: Rebounds O/U 13.5 | 16% |
| Josh Giddey: Assists O/U 11.5 | 16% |
| Matas Buzelis: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 16% |
| Spread -14.5 | 15% |
| 1H O/U 139.5 | 15% |
| Spread -15.5 | 14% |
| Anthony Davis: Points O/U 29.5 | 14% |
| Trae Young: Assists O/U 13.5 | 14% |
| Matas Buzelis: Points O/U 19.5 | 14% |
| Josh Giddey: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 14% |
| Matas Buzelis: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 14% |
| Kyshawn George: Points O/U 19.5 | 14% |
| Jalen Smith: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 14% |
| Trae Young: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 13% |
| Kyshawn George: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 13% |
| 1H O/U 141.5 | 13% |
| Spread -16.5 | 12% |
| Trae Young: Assists O/U 15.5 | 12% |
| Norman Powell: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 12% |
| Spread -17.5 | 11% |
| Trae Young: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 11% |
| Josh Giddey: Points O/U 19.5 | 11% |
| Josh Giddey: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 11% |
| Matas Buzelis: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 11% |
| Jalen Smith: Points O/U 19.5 | 11% |
| Jalen Smith: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 11% |
| Matas Buzelis: Assists O/U 3.5 | 11% |
| Kyshawn George: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 11% |
| Spread -18.5 | 10% |
| Caleb Wilson: Points O/U 24.5 | 10% |
| Caleb Wilson: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 10% |
| Jalen Smith: Points O/U 24.5 | 10% |
| Kyshawn George: Points O/U 24.5 | 10% |
| Matas Buzelis: Points O/U 29.5 | 10% |
| Matas Buzelis: 3-Pointers Made O/U 5.5 | 10% |
| Trae Young: Points O/U 29.5 | 9% |
| Anthony Davis: Rebounds O/U 15.5 | 9% |
| Caleb Wilson: Assists O/U 3.5 | 9% |
| Norman Powell: Points O/U 29.5 | 9% |
| Norman Powell: Assists O/U 3.5 | 9% |
| Josh Giddey: Assists O/U 13.5 | 9% |
| Jalen Smith: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 9% |
| Spread -20.5 | 8% |
| Spread -19.5 | 8% |
| Norman Powell: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 8% |
| Jalen Smith: Assists O/U 3.5 | 8% |
| Kyshawn George: Assists O/U 5.5 | 8% |
| Kyshawn George: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 8% |
| Matas Buzelis: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 8% |
| Spread -21.5 | 7% |
| Anthony Davis: Assists O/U 5.5 | 7% |
| Caleb Wilson: Assists O/U 5.5 | 7% |
| Matas Buzelis: Points O/U 24.5 | 7% |
| Caleb Wilson: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 7% |
| Josh Giddey: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 7% |
| Spread -22.5 | 6% |
| Trae Young: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 6% |
| Kyshawn George: Assists O/U 7.5 | 6% |
| Jalen Smith: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 6% |
| Kyshawn George: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 6% |
| Spread -23.5 | 5% |
| Spread -25.5 | 5% |
| Matas Buzelis: Assists O/U 5.5 | 5% |
| Spread -24.5 | 4% |
| Spread -26.5 | 4% |
| Spread -29.5 | 3% |
| Spread -27.5 | 2% |
Markt-Kontext
Händler auf dezentralen Prognosemärkten geben 94% Wahrscheinlichkeit für Prognose: Wizards vs. Bulls. In the upcoming NBA game, scheduled for October 24 at 8:00PM ET: If the Wizards win, the market will resolve to "Wizards". If the Bulls win, the market will resolve to "Bulls". If the game is postpone…
Live-Daten & Statistiken
Live-Statistiken werden geladen, sobald das Spiel beginnt. Aktuelle Quoten sind oben verfügbar. Handelsvolumen: $109K.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Methodisch unterscheiden wir zwei Schichten: die Live-Wahrscheinlichkeit (Polymarket-Mid-Preis) und die Plattform-Attribute (Gebühren, KYC, Auszahlung, Settlement-Währung). Eine kanonische Wahrscheinlichkeit über die Zeile, die Anbieter-spezifischen Trade-offs in den Spalten — sauber, vergleichbar, ohne Marketing-Lärm.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Die Auflösung läuft on-chain. Polymarkets Vertragslogik trennt YES- und NO-Anteile als Conditional Tokens; bei Auflösung werden die richtigen Anteile zu 100¢ und die anderen zu 0¢. Die Outcome-Eingabe kommt vom UMA Optimistic Oracle, das mit einem Bond-System gegen falsche Auflösung absichert.
Sobald die Auflösung durch ist, hebt der Smart Contract alle gewinnenden Anteile zu USDC und schickt die Beträge an die Wallets der Inhaber. Das geschieht binnen Minuten der finalen Bestätigung — ohne Auszahlungsgebühren über die Polygon-Netzwerkkosten hinaus.
Häufige Fragen
- Sind Prediction-Märkte in Deutschland legal?
- Prediction-Märkte befinden sich in Deutschland in einem rechtlichen Graubereich. Polymarket selbst ist in Deutschland geo-blockiert. Handeln Sie nur mit Kapital, dessen Verlust Sie verkraften können, und prüfen Sie die rechtliche Lage für Ihre Jurisdiktion.
- Wie funktioniert die Auflösung?
- Über das UMA Optimistic Oracle: ein Vorschlagender reicht das Ergebnis ein, ein zweistündiges Einspruchsfenster öffnet sich, USDC-Auszahlung erfolgt automatisch.
- Was ist der Unterschied zwischen YES- und NO-Anteilen?
- Ein YES-Anteil zahlt $1,00 bei Eintritt des Ereignisses, sonst $0. Ein NO-Anteil zahlt $1,00, wenn das Ereignis nicht eintritt. Der Marktpreis zwischen 0¢ und 100¢ ist die implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit.
- Welche Gebühren fallen bei Polymarket an?
- Direkt am Polymarket-Orderbuch keine Gebühren — die einzigen Kosten sind Polygon-Netzwerkgebühren (typischerweise unter $0,01 pro Transaktion). Off-chain Plattformen wie Kalshi oder Betfair verlangen 2-7 % Kommission.
- Wie lange dauert eine USDC-Einzahlung?
- Auf Polygon werden Einzahlungen nach 12 Bestätigungen gutgeschrieben — in der Regel unter 30 Sekunden. Withdrawals folgen demselben Pfad und sind binnen Minuten auf Ihrer Wallet.
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