Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über Polymarket Deutsch) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
96% | 4% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Auf Polymarket ansehen → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
96% | 4% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Auf Polymarket ansehen → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Auf Polymarket ansehen → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Auf Polymarket ansehen → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Auf Polymarket ansehen → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| O/U 27.5 | 96% |
| O/U 29.5 | 96% |
| O/U 28.5 | 96% |
| O/U 31.5 | 95% |
| O/U 30.5 | 95% |
| O/U 33.5 | 94% |
| O/U 32.5 | 94% |
| Rams O/U 13.5 | 93% |
| Rams O/U 16.5 | 93% |
| Rams O/U 19.5 | 93% |
| O/U 24.5 | 92% |
| O/U 26.5 | 92% |
| O/U 34.5 | 92% |
| Rams O/U 20.5 | 92% |
| O/U 35.5 | 91% |
| O/U 36.5 | 90% |
| 1H O/U 16.5 | 88% |
| Cardinals O/U 10.5 | 88% |
| O/U 37.5 | 87% |
| Rams O/U 23.5 | 87% |
| O/U 39.5 | 85% |
| Spread -1.5 | 85% |
| O/U 38.5 | 85% |
| 1H O/U 19.5 | 84% |
| Spread -2.5 | 83% |
| O/U 40.5 | 82% |
| Cardinals O/U 12.5 | 80% |
| O/U 41.5 | 78% |
| O/U 42.5 | 78% |
| 1Q O/U 6.5 | 78% |
| Spread -3.5 | 77% |
| Rams O/U 26.5 | 75% |
| O/U 43.5 | 74% |
| Spread -4.5 | 74% |
| Cardinals O/U 13.5 | 74% |
| Rams O/U 12.5 | 74% |
| 4Q O/U 6.5 | 73% |
| Spread -5.5 | 72% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 71% |
| O/U 44.5 | 71% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 70% |
| O/U 45.5 | 69% |
| Spread -6.5 | 69% |
| Rams O/U 27.5 | 69% |
| 1H O/U 22.5 | 67% |
| 2Q O/U 6.5 | 67% |
| 2Q O/U 7.5 | 67% |
| 3Q O/U 6.5 | 67% |
| Rams O/U 10.5 | 67% |
| O/U 46.5 | 66% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 64% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 64% |
| Rams 1H O/U 6.5 | 64% |
| Spread -7.5 | 63% |
| Cardinals O/U 16.5 | 63% |
| O/U 47.5 | 62% |
| Rams 1H O/U 10.5 | 62% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 61% |
| Rams 1H O/U 12.5 | 61% |
| Spread -8.5 | 60% |
| O/U 48.5 | 60% |
| Spread -9.5 | 59% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 59% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 59% |
| Rams 1H O/U 13.5 | 59% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 58% |
| O/U 49.5 | 57% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 57% |
| Rams O/U 30.5 | 57% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 56% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 56% |
| 2H O/U 19.5 | 56% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 56% |
| Spread -10.5 | 55% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 55% |
| 2H O/U 16.5 | 55% |
| 2H O/U 22.5 | 55% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 54% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 54% |
| O/U 50.5 | 54% |
| 2H O/U 25.5 | 54% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 53% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 53% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 53% |
| 1H O/U 25.5 | 53% |
| 2Q O/U 14.5 | 53% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 53% |
| Rams 1H O/U 16.5 | 53% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 4Q | 53% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 51% |
| 1Q O/U 5.5 | 51% |
| O/U 51.5 | 50% |
| Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Cardinals O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Cardinals 2H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Cardinals 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Cardinals 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Cardinals 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Rams 2H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Rams 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| 2H Moneyline | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Cardinals by 25+ | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Cardinals by 19-24 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Cardinals by 13-18 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Cardinals by 7-12 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Rams by 7-13 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Rams by 14-20 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Rams by 21+ | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 2Q | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 3Q | 50% |
| Cardinals Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Rams Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Cardinals vs. Rams: Total Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| Rams Total Touchdowns: O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Rams Total Touchdowns: O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 49% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 49% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 49% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 49% |
| Cardinals 1H O/U 6.5 | 49% |
| Cardinals 1H O/U 13.5 | 49% |
| Cardinals 2H O/U 16.5 | 49% |
| Cardinals 2H O/U 17.5 | 49% |
| Cardinals 2H O/U 19.5 | 49% |
| Cardinals 2H O/U 20.5 | 49% |
| Rams 2H O/U 10.5 | 49% |
| Rams 2H O/U 12.5 | 49% |
| Rams 2H O/U 13.5 | 49% |
| Rams 2H O/U 16.5 | 49% |
| Rams 2H O/U 17.5 | 49% |
| Rams 2H O/U 20.5 | 49% |
| Cardinals Total Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 49% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 48% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 48% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 48% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 48% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 48% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 48% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 48% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 48% |
| Cardinals 1H O/U 10.5 | 48% |
| Cardinals 1H O/U 12.5 | 48% |
| Cardinals 1H O/U 16.5 | 48% |
| Spread -13.5 | 47% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 47% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 47% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 47% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 47% |
| 2H O/U 28.5 | 47% |
| 4Q O/U 14.5 | 47% |
| Cardinals 1H O/U 17.5 | 47% |
| Cardinals 1H O/U 19.5 | 47% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 1Q | 47% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 46% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 46% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 46% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 46% |
| O/U 52.5 | 46% |
| Exact Margin: Tie | 46% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 45% |
| Cardinals 1H O/U 20.5 | 45% |
| Safety? | 45% |
| O/U 53.5 | 44% |
| Spread -17.5 | 44% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 44% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 44% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 44% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 44% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 44% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 44% |
| Cardinals O/U 20.5 | 44% |
| Rams 1H O/U 17.5 | 44% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 43% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 43% |
| Exact Margin: Cardinals by 1-6 | 43% |
| Spread -14.5 | 42% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 42% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 42% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 42% |
| O/U 54.5 | 42% |
| Exact Margin: Rams by 1-6 | 42% |
| Spread -15.5 | 41% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 41% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 40% |
| 1H O/U 28.5 | 40% |
| Rams O/U 34.5 | 40% |
| Spread -16.5 | 39% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 39% |
| O/U 55.5 | 38% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 37% |
| O/U 56.5 | 37% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 36% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 36% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 36% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 36% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 36% |
| 3Q O/U 14.5 | 36% |
| Spread -17.5 | 35% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 35% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 34% |
| Rams 1H O/U 19.5 | 34% |
| O/U 57.5 | 33% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 33% |
| Cardinals O/U 23.5 | 33% |
| O/U 58.5 | 32% |
| Spread -19.5 | 31% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 31% |
| Rams 1H O/U 20.5 | 31% |
| Spread -21.5 | 30% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 30% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 29% |
| O/U 59.5 | 28% |
| Spread -13.5 | 28% |
| Spread -20.5 | 28% |
| Spread -20.5 | 28% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 28% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 27% |
| Spread -19.5 | 26% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 26% |
| O/U 60.5 | 25% |
| 1H Moneyline | 25% |
| O/U 61.5 | 24% |
| Cardinals O/U 26.5 | 23% |
| Spread -21.5 | 22% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 22% |
| O/U 62.5 | 21% |
| O/U 63.5 | 19% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 19% |
| O/U 64.5 | 18% |
| O/U 65.5 | 17% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 16% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 15% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 14% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 14% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 14% |
| 1Q O/U 14.5 | 14% |
| Cardinals O/U 27.5 | 14% |
| Cardinals vs. Rams | 13% |
| O/U 67.5 | 13% |
| Spread -1.5 | 13% |
| Spread -2.5 | 12% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 11% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 10% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 10% |
| Cardinals O/U 30.5 | 9% |
| Cardinals O/U 34.5 | 9% |
| Spread -8.5 | 8% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 8% |
| Spread -3.5 | 7% |
| Spread -4.5 | 7% |
| Spread -5.5 | 7% |
| Spread -6.5 | 6% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 6% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 5% |
| Spread -7.5 | 4% |
| Spread -9.5 | 3% |
| Spread -10.5 | 3% |
Markt-Kontext
Prognose: Cardinals vs. Rams — aktuelle Marktwahrscheinlichkeit: 96%. In the upcoming NFL football game between Cardinals and Rams, scheduled for October 18 at 4:05PM ET: This market will resolve to "Cardinals" if Cardinals win the game. This market will resolve to "Ram…
Live-Daten & Statistiken
Live-Statistiken werden geladen, sobald das Spiel beginnt. Aktuelle Quoten sind oben verfügbar. Handelsvolumen: $174K.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Methodisch unterscheiden wir zwei Schichten: die Live-Wahrscheinlichkeit (Polymarket-Mid-Preis) und die Plattform-Attribute (Gebühren, KYC, Auszahlung, Settlement-Währung). Eine kanonische Wahrscheinlichkeit über die Zeile, die Anbieter-spezifischen Trade-offs in den Spalten — sauber, vergleichbar, ohne Marketing-Lärm.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Polymarket-basierte Märkte werden über das UMA Optimistic Oracle auf Polygon aufgelöst. Ein Vorschlagender reicht das Ergebnis ein, ein zweistündiges Einspruchsfenster öffnet sich, und unangefochtene Vorschläge schließen die Auflösung ab. Auszahlungen erfolgen automatisch in USDC, sobald das Ergebnis final ist — keine Buchhalter, keine Verzögerung.
Kalshi-basierte Märkte werden in USD über die CFTC-regulierte Settlement-Engine ausgezahlt. Betfair Exchange zahlt in GBP/EUR aus, abzüglich Kommission. Manifold ist Spielgeld und zahlt keine echten Beträge aus.
Häufige Fragen
- Wo kann ich diesen Markt am günstigsten handeln?
- Polymarket selbst ist global zugänglich, in DE/AT/CH allerdings geo-blockiert. Der einfachste Broker mit gleichem Orderbuch und 0 % Gebühr ist Polymarket Deutsch. Kalshi nimmt bis zu 7 % pro Trade, Betfair Exchange 2-5 % Kommission auf Gewinne.
- Was ist der Unterschied zwischen YES- und NO-Anteilen?
- Ein YES-Anteil zahlt $1,00 bei Eintritt des Ereignisses, sonst $0. Ein NO-Anteil zahlt $1,00, wenn das Ereignis nicht eintritt. Der Marktpreis zwischen 0¢ und 100¢ ist die implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit.
- Welche Gebühren fallen bei Polymarket an?
- Direkt am Polymarket-Orderbuch keine Gebühren — die einzigen Kosten sind Polygon-Netzwerkgebühren (typischerweise unter $0,01 pro Transaktion). Off-chain Plattformen wie Kalshi oder Betfair verlangen 2-7 % Kommission.
- Brauche ich KYC für diesen Markt?
- Auf Polymarket direkt nicht. Über vermittelnde Broker wie Polymarket Deutsch ist KYC erst ab $1.500 lebenslangem Trading-Volumen erforderlich — darunter handeln Sie pseudonym mit nur einer Wallet-Adresse.
- Wie verlässlich sind die angezeigten Quoten?
- Die YES/NO-Prozentsätze sind die Live-Mid-Preise des Polymarket-Orderbuchs. Auf Märkten mit hoher Liquidität bewegen sich diese Werte sekündlich; bei dünneren Märkten sehen Sie kurze Plateaus.
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Jetzt „Prognose: Cardinals vs. Rams" auf Polymarket Deutsch handeln
Live-Orderbuch, 0 % Gebühren, USDC-Auszahlung in Sekunden.
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