Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über Polymarket Deutsch) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
97% | 3% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Auf Polymarket ansehen → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
97% | 3% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Auf Polymarket ansehen → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Auf Polymarket ansehen → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Auf Polymarket ansehen → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Auf Polymarket ansehen → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| O/U 26.5 | 97% |
| O/U 27.5 | 96% |
| O/U 29.5 | 96% |
| O/U 31.5 | 96% |
| O/U 28.5 | 96% |
| O/U 30.5 | 96% |
| O/U 33.5 | 94% |
| O/U 24.5 | 94% |
| O/U 32.5 | 94% |
| 2Q O/U 5.5 | 94% |
| Bears O/U 10.5 | 94% |
| Falcons O/U 10.5 | 94% |
| O/U 34.5 | 92% |
| 1H O/U 16.5 | 92% |
| 2Q O/U 6.5 | 92% |
| 4Q O/U 5.5 | 92% |
| Bears O/U 13.5 | 92% |
| Falcons O/U 13.5 | 91% |
| O/U 35.5 | 90% |
| O/U 36.5 | 90% |
| Bears O/U 12.5 | 90% |
| 4Q O/U 6.5 | 89% |
| 2Q O/U 7.5 | 88% |
| Bears O/U 16.5 | 87% |
| O/U 37.5 | 86% |
| Bears 1H O/U 6.5 | 86% |
| O/U 38.5 | 85% |
| Falcons O/U 16.5 | 85% |
| Falcons 1H O/U 6.5 | 85% |
| O/U 39.5 | 84% |
| 3Q O/U 5.5 | 84% |
| 1Q O/U 5.5 | 83% |
| O/U 40.5 | 81% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 81% |
| Bears O/U 19.5 | 80% |
| O/U 41.5 | 79% |
| 3Q O/U 6.5 | 79% |
| Falcons O/U 19.5 | 79% |
| O/U 42.5 | 78% |
| 1Q O/U 6.5 | 77% |
| O/U 43.5 | 76% |
| 1H O/U 19.5 | 76% |
| 2H O/U 19.5 | 76% |
| Falcons O/U 12.5 | 75% |
| Bears O/U 20.5 | 74% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 73% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 2Q | 73% |
| O/U 44.5 | 72% |
| 2H O/U 16.5 | 72% |
| Falcons O/U 20.5 | 72% |
| O/U 45.5 | 70% |
| O/U 46.5 | 69% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 68% |
| O/U 47.5 | 66% |
| 1H O/U 22.5 | 65% |
| 2H O/U 22.5 | 64% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 63% |
| Bears O/U 23.5 | 63% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 4Q | 63% |
| O/U 48.5 | 62% |
| Falcons O/U 23.5 | 62% |
| O/U 49.5 | 60% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 60% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 59% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 58% |
| O/U 50.5 | 57% |
| Bears 1H O/U 10.5 | 57% |
| Bears 1H O/U 12.5 | 56% |
| Falcons 1H O/U 10.5 | 55% |
| Falcons 1H O/U 12.5 | 54% |
| Falcons 2H O/U 6.5 | 54% |
| O/U 51.5 | 53% |
| 2Q O/U 14.5 | 53% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 3Q | 53% |
| Bears O/U 26.5 | 52% |
| 1H Moneyline | 52% |
| Bears vs. Falcons | 51% |
| 1H O/U 25.5 | 51% |
| 2H O/U 25.5 | 51% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| O/U 52.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Bears O/U 34.5 | 50% |
| Falcons O/U 26.5 | 50% |
| Bears 2H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Bears 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Bears 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Bears 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Bears 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Bears 2H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Bears 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Bears 2H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| Falcons 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Falcons 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Falcons 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Falcons 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Falcons 2H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Falcons 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Falcons 2H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Moneyline | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Bears by 25+ | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Bears by 19-24 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Bears by 13-18 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Bears by 7-12 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Falcons by 7-13 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Falcons by 14-20 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Falcons by 21+ | 50% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| Falcons Total Touchdowns: O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 49% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 49% |
| Bears 1H O/U 13.5 | 49% |
| Spread -1.5 | 48% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 48% |
| Spread -1.5 | 47% |
| O/U 53.5 | 46% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 46% |
| Bears 1H O/U 17.5 | 46% |
| Falcons Total Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 46% |
| Spread -2.5 | 45% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 45% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 45% |
| Bears O/U 27.5 | 45% |
| Spread -2.5 | 44% |
| O/U 54.5 | 44% |
| Falcons 1H O/U 13.5 | 44% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 43% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 43% |
| Falcons O/U 27.5 | 42% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 1Q | 42% |
| O/U 55.5 | 41% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 41% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 40% |
| 2H O/U 28.5 | 40% |
| Bears Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 40% |
| Falcons Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 40% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 39% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 39% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 39% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 38% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 38% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 38% |
| O/U 56.5 | 38% |
| Spread -3.5 | 37% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 37% |
| 1H O/U 28.5 | 37% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 37% |
| Spread -3.5 | 36% |
| O/U 57.5 | 35% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 35% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 35% |
| Bears 1H O/U 16.5 | 35% |
| Spread -4.5 | 34% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 34% |
| Spread -5.5 | 33% |
| Spread -4.5 | 33% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 33% |
| O/U 58.5 | 33% |
| Bears O/U 30.5 | 33% |
| Spread -6.5 | 32% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 32% |
| Falcons 1H O/U 17.5 | 32% |
| Spread -5.5 | 31% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 31% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 31% |
| Falcons 1H O/U 16.5 | 31% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 30% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 30% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 30% |
| Falcons O/U 30.5 | 30% |
| O/U 59.5 | 28% |
| Spread -6.5 | 28% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 28% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 28% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 28% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 28% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 28% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 28% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 28% |
| O/U 60.5 | 28% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 27% |
| Spread -7.5 | 26% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 26% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 26% |
| O/U 61.5 | 25% |
| Bears Total Touchdowns: O/U 3.5 | 25% |
| O/U 63.5 | 24% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 24% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 24% |
| O/U 62.5 | 24% |
| Bears vs. Falcons: Total Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 24% |
| Spread -7.5 | 23% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 23% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 23% |
| 3Q O/U 14.5 | 23% |
| Spread -8.5 | 22% |
| Spread -9.5 | 22% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 22% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 22% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 22% |
| Bears 1H O/U 19.5 | 22% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 21% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 21% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 21% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 20% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 20% |
| O/U 64.5 | 20% |
| Falcons 1H O/U 19.5 | 20% |
| Spread -10.5 | 19% |
| Spread -8.5 | 19% |
| Spread -9.5 | 19% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 19% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 19% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 19% |
| O/U 67.5 | 18% |
| 1Q O/U 14.5 | 18% |
| Bears 1H O/U 20.5 | 18% |
| Exact Margin: Falcons by 1-6 | 18% |
| O/U 65.5 | 17% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 17% |
| Exact Margin: Bears by 1-6 | 17% |
| Spread -10.5 | 16% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 16% |
| Spread -13.5 | 15% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 15% |
| Spread -13.5 | 14% |
| Falcons 1H O/U 20.5 | 14% |
| Spread -14.5 | 13% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 13% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 13% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 13% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 12% |
| Falcons O/U 34.5 | 12% |
| Spread -16.5 | 10% |
| Spread -14.5 | 10% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 10% |
| Spread -17.5 | 9% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 9% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 9% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 9% |
| Spread -16.5 | 8% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 8% |
| Spread -20.5 | 7% |
| Spread -17.5 | 7% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 7% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 7% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 7% |
| Spread -19.5 | 6% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 6% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 6% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 6% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 6% |
| Safety? | 6% |
| Spread -19.5 | 5% |
| Spread -20.5 | 4% |
| Spread -21.5 | 4% |
| Spread -21.5 | 3% |
| Exact Margin: Tie | 2% |
Markt-Kontext
Prognose: Bears vs. Falcons — aktuelle Marktwahrscheinlichkeit: 97%. In the upcoming NFL football game between Bears and Falcons, scheduled for October 18 at 1:00PM ET: This market will resolve to "Bears" if Bears win the game. This market will resolve to "Falcons" if …
Live-Daten & Statistiken
Live-Statistiken werden geladen, sobald das Spiel beginnt. Aktuelle Quoten sind oben verfügbar. Handelsvolumen: $264K.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Methodisch unterscheiden wir zwei Schichten: die Live-Wahrscheinlichkeit (Polymarket-Mid-Preis) und die Plattform-Attribute (Gebühren, KYC, Auszahlung, Settlement-Währung). Eine kanonische Wahrscheinlichkeit über die Zeile, die Anbieter-spezifischen Trade-offs in den Spalten — sauber, vergleichbar, ohne Marketing-Lärm.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Polymarket-basierte Märkte werden über das UMA Optimistic Oracle auf Polygon aufgelöst. Ein Vorschlagender reicht das Ergebnis ein, ein zweistündiges Einspruchsfenster öffnet sich, und unangefochtene Vorschläge schließen die Auflösung ab. Auszahlungen erfolgen automatisch in USDC, sobald das Ergebnis final ist — keine Buchhalter, keine Verzögerung.
Kalshi-basierte Märkte werden in USD über die CFTC-regulierte Settlement-Engine ausgezahlt. Betfair Exchange zahlt in GBP/EUR aus, abzüglich Kommission. Manifold ist Spielgeld und zahlt keine echten Beträge aus.
Häufige Fragen
- Wie funktioniert die Auflösung?
- Über das UMA Optimistic Oracle: ein Vorschlagender reicht das Ergebnis ein, ein zweistündiges Einspruchsfenster öffnet sich, USDC-Auszahlung erfolgt automatisch.
- Was ist der Unterschied zwischen YES- und NO-Anteilen?
- Ein YES-Anteil zahlt $1,00 bei Eintritt des Ereignisses, sonst $0. Ein NO-Anteil zahlt $1,00, wenn das Ereignis nicht eintritt. Der Marktpreis zwischen 0¢ und 100¢ ist die implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit.
- Welche Gebühren fallen bei Polymarket an?
- Direkt am Polymarket-Orderbuch keine Gebühren — die einzigen Kosten sind Polygon-Netzwerkgebühren (typischerweise unter $0,01 pro Transaktion). Off-chain Plattformen wie Kalshi oder Betfair verlangen 2-7 % Kommission.
- Wie lange dauert eine USDC-Einzahlung?
- Auf Polygon werden Einzahlungen nach 12 Bestätigungen gutgeschrieben — in der Regel unter 30 Sekunden. Withdrawals folgen demselben Pfad und sind binnen Minuten auf Ihrer Wallet.
- Brauche ich KYC für diesen Markt?
- Auf Polymarket direkt nicht. Über vermittelnde Broker wie Polymarket Deutsch ist KYC erst ab $1.500 lebenslangem Trading-Volumen erforderlich — darunter handeln Sie pseudonym mit nur einer Wallet-Adresse.
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