Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über Polymarket Deutsch) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
93% | 7% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Auf Polymarket ansehen → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
93% | 7% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Auf Polymarket ansehen → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Auf Polymarket ansehen → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Auf Polymarket ansehen → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Auf Polymarket ansehen → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| O/U 24.5 | 93% |
| O/U 26.5 | 91% |
| Eagles O/U 10.5 | 90% |
| O/U 27.5 | 88% |
| Eagles O/U 12.5 | 88% |
| O/U 28.5 | 87% |
| O/U 29.5 | 86% |
| Eagles O/U 13.5 | 85% |
| O/U 30.5 | 82% |
| Bears O/U 10.5 | 81% |
| O/U 31.5 | 80% |
| 2Q O/U 6.5 | 80% |
| O/U 32.5 | 79% |
| 4Q O/U 6.5 | 78% |
| Bears O/U 12.5 | 77% |
| Eagles O/U 16.5 | 76% |
| O/U 33.5 | 75% |
| 2Q O/U 7.5 | 75% |
| O/U 34.5 | 72% |
| O/U 35.5 | 71% |
| Bears O/U 13.5 | 71% |
| 1H O/U 16.5 | 70% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 70% |
| O/U 36.5 | 68% |
| Bears 1H O/U 6.5 | 67% |
| Eagles vs. Bears | 65% |
| 1Q O/U 6.5 | 65% |
| 3Q O/U 6.5 | 65% |
| Eagles O/U 19.5 | 65% |
| O/U 37.5 | 64% |
| Eagles 1H O/U 6.5 | 63% |
| O/U 38.5 | 61% |
| 1H Moneyline | 60% |
| Bears O/U 16.5 | 60% |
| O/U 39.5 | 59% |
| Spread -1.5 | 59% |
| Eagles O/U 20.5 | 58% |
| Spread -2.5 | 57% |
| 1H O/U 19.5 | 57% |
| 2H O/U 16.5 | 57% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 57% |
| O/U 40.5 | 55% |
| 3Q O/U 5.5 | 54% |
| O/U 41.5 | 52% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 52% |
| Exact Margin: Bears by 1-6 | 51% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 4Q | 51% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 51% |
| Eagles 1H O/U 10.5 | 51% |
| 2H Moneyline | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Eagles by 25+ | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Eagles by 19-24 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Eagles by 13-18 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Eagles by 7-12 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Eagles by 1-6 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Bears by 7-13 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Bears by 14-20 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Bears by 21+ | 50% |
| Safety? | 50% |
| Team to Record Longest FG | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 1Q | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 2Q | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 3Q | 50% |
| Eagles Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Bears Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Eagles vs. Bears: Total Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Bears O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Eagles 1H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Bears 1H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Bears 1H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Bears 1H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Eagles 2H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Eagles 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Eagles 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Eagles 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Eagles 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Eagles 2H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Eagles 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Eagles 2H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| Bears 2H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Bears 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Bears 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Bears 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Bears 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Bears 2H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Bears 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Bears 2H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| Eagles Total Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Bears Total Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Bears Total Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Spread -3.5 | 49% |
| O/U 42.5 | 49% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 49% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 48% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 47% |
| Eagles O/U 23.5 | 47% |
| O/U 43.5 | 45% |
| Spread -4.5 | 45% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 45% |
| 1H O/U 22.5 | 44% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 44% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 43% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 43% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 43% |
| Bears O/U 20.5 | 43% |
| O/U 44.5 | 42% |
| Spread -5.5 | 42% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 42% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 42% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 42% |
| Spread -6.5 | 41% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 40% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 40% |
| O/U 45.5 | 39% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 38% |
| 2H O/U 22.5 | 38% |
| 2Q O/U 14.5 | 38% |
| Eagles 1H O/U 13.5 | 38% |
| O/U 46.5 | 37% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 37% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 37% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 37% |
| Spread -0.5 | 36% |
| Eagles O/U 26.5 | 36% |
| Spread -7.5 | 35% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 35% |
| Spread -1.5 | 34% |
| O/U 47.5 | 34% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 34% |
| 4Q O/U 14.5 | 34% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 33% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 33% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 33% |
| Spread -2.5 | 32% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 32% |
| 1H O/U 25.5 | 32% |
| Bears O/U 23.5 | 32% |
| O/U 48.5 | 31% |
| Spread -8.5 | 31% |
| Spread -9.5 | 31% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 31% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 31% |
| Eagles O/U 27.5 | 31% |
| Eagles 1H O/U 12.5 | 31% |
| O/U 49.5 | 30% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 30% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 30% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 30% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 30% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 29% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 28% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 28% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 28% |
| Spread -10.5 | 27% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 27% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 27% |
| 2H O/U 25.5 | 27% |
| O/U 50.5 | 26% |
| Spread -3.5 | 25% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 25% |
| Spread -4.5 | 24% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 24% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 24% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 24% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 24% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 24% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 24% |
| Eagles 1H O/U 16.5 | 24% |
| O/U 51.5 | 23% |
| Spread -13.5 | 23% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 23% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 23% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 23% |
| Bears O/U 26.5 | 23% |
| Spread -5.5 | 22% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 22% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 22% |
| Eagles O/U 30.5 | 22% |
| Bears 1H O/U 13.5 | 22% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 21% |
| O/U 52.5 | 21% |
| 2H O/U 28.5 | 21% |
| O/U 53.5 | 20% |
| Spread -14.5 | 20% |
| Spread -6.5 | 20% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 20% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 20% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 20% |
| 1H O/U 28.5 | 20% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 19% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 18% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 18% |
| Spread -16.5 | 17% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 17% |
| O/U 54.5 | 17% |
| Bears O/U 27.5 | 17% |
| O/U 55.5 | 16% |
| Spread -7.5 | 16% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 16% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 16% |
| Bears 1H O/U 16.5 | 16% |
| Spread -17.5 | 15% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 15% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 15% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 15% |
| O/U 56.5 | 15% |
| 3Q O/U 14.5 | 15% |
| Spread -8.5 | 14% |
| Spread -9.5 | 14% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 14% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 14% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 14% |
| 1Q O/U 14.5 | 14% |
| O/U 57.5 | 13% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 13% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 13% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 13% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 13% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 12% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 12% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 12% |
| Bears O/U 30.5 | 12% |
| Spread -19.5 | 11% |
| Spread -20.5 | 11% |
| Spread -10.5 | 11% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 11% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 11% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 11% |
| O/U 58.5 | 11% |
| Eagles 1H O/U 19.5 | 11% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 10% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 10% |
| Eagles O/U 34.5 | 10% |
| O/U 59.5 | 9% |
| Spread -13.5 | 9% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 9% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 9% |
| Eagles 1H O/U 20.5 | 9% |
| O/U 61.5 | 8% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 8% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 8% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 8% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 8% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 8% |
| O/U 60.5 | 8% |
| Spread -21.5 | 7% |
| Spread -14.5 | 7% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 7% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 7% |
| Bears 1H O/U 19.5 | 7% |
| Spread -16.5 | 6% |
| O/U 62.5 | 6% |
| Bears O/U 34.5 | 6% |
| Bears 1H O/U 20.5 | 6% |
| O/U 63.5 | 5% |
| O/U 65.5 | 5% |
| Spread -17.5 | 5% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 5% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 5% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 5% |
| O/U 64.5 | 5% |
| O/U 67.5 | 4% |
| Exact Margin: Tie | 4% |
| Spread -20.5 | 4% |
| Spread -21.5 | 4% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 4% |
| Spread -19.5 | 3% |
Markt-Kontext
Der Prognosemarkt für „Prognose: Eagles vs. Bears" bewertet dieses Ergebnis derzeit mit 93% Ja-Wahrscheinlichkeit. In the upcoming NFL game, scheduled for September 28 at 8:15PM ET: If Eagles wins, the market will resolve to "Eagles". If Bears wins, the market will resolve to "Bears". If the game is postponed, thi…
Live-Daten & Statistiken
Live-Statistiken werden geladen, sobald das Spiel beginnt. Aktuelle Quoten sind oben verfügbar. Handelsvolumen: $361K.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Methodisch unterscheiden wir zwei Schichten: die Live-Wahrscheinlichkeit (Polymarket-Mid-Preis) und die Plattform-Attribute (Gebühren, KYC, Auszahlung, Settlement-Währung). Eine kanonische Wahrscheinlichkeit über die Zeile, die Anbieter-spezifischen Trade-offs in den Spalten — sauber, vergleichbar, ohne Marketing-Lärm.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Die Auflösung läuft on-chain. Polymarkets Vertragslogik trennt YES- und NO-Anteile als Conditional Tokens; bei Auflösung werden die richtigen Anteile zu 100¢ und die anderen zu 0¢. Die Outcome-Eingabe kommt vom UMA Optimistic Oracle, das mit einem Bond-System gegen falsche Auflösung absichert.
Sobald die Auflösung durch ist, hebt der Smart Contract alle gewinnenden Anteile zu USDC und schickt die Beträge an die Wallets der Inhaber. Das geschieht binnen Minuten der finalen Bestätigung — ohne Auszahlungsgebühren über die Polygon-Netzwerkkosten hinaus.
Häufige Fragen
- Wo kann ich diesen Markt am günstigsten handeln?
- Polymarket selbst ist global zugänglich, in DE/AT/CH allerdings geo-blockiert. Der einfachste Broker mit gleichem Orderbuch und 0 % Gebühr ist Polymarket Deutsch. Kalshi nimmt bis zu 7 % pro Trade, Betfair Exchange 2-5 % Kommission auf Gewinne.
- Sind Prediction-Märkte in Deutschland legal?
- Prediction-Märkte befinden sich in Deutschland in einem rechtlichen Graubereich. Polymarket selbst ist in Deutschland geo-blockiert. Handeln Sie nur mit Kapital, dessen Verlust Sie verkraften können, und prüfen Sie die rechtliche Lage für Ihre Jurisdiktion.
- Was ist der Unterschied zwischen YES- und NO-Anteilen?
- Ein YES-Anteil zahlt $1,00 bei Eintritt des Ereignisses, sonst $0. Ein NO-Anteil zahlt $1,00, wenn das Ereignis nicht eintritt. Der Marktpreis zwischen 0¢ und 100¢ ist die implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit.
- Welche Gebühren fallen bei Polymarket an?
- Direkt am Polymarket-Orderbuch keine Gebühren — die einzigen Kosten sind Polygon-Netzwerkgebühren (typischerweise unter $0,01 pro Transaktion). Off-chain Plattformen wie Kalshi oder Betfair verlangen 2-7 % Kommission.
- Wie verlässlich sind die angezeigten Quoten?
- Die YES/NO-Prozentsätze sind die Live-Mid-Preise des Polymarket-Orderbuchs. Auf Märkten mit hoher Liquidität bewegen sich diese Werte sekündlich; bei dünneren Märkten sehen Sie kurze Plateaus.
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Live-Orderbuch, 0 % Gebühren, USDC-Auszahlung in Sekunden.
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