Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über Polymarket Deutsch) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
82% | 18% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Auf Polymarket ansehen → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
82% | 18% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Auf Polymarket ansehen → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Auf Polymarket ansehen → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Auf Polymarket ansehen → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Auf Polymarket ansehen → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| Clippers O/U 97.5 | 82% |
| Clippers O/U 98.5 | 81% |
| 1H Spread -0.5 | 80% |
| Clippers O/U 99.5 | 77% |
| Lakers O/U 108.5 | 76% |
| Spread -1.5 | 74% |
| 1H O/U 102.5 | 74% |
| Lakers O/U 109.5 | 74% |
| Lakers 1H O/U 53.5 | 72% |
| Spread -2.5 | 71% |
| Clippers 1H O/U 48.5 | 70% |
| Clippers O/U 102.5 | 70% |
| Luka Dončić: Assists O/U 5.5 | 69% |
| Spread -4.5 | 66% |
| Clippers O/U 103.5 | 65% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 65% |
| Clippers O/U 104.5 | 63% |
| 1H O/U 106.5 | 62% |
| Lakers O/U 113.5 | 62% |
| Lakers 1H O/U 55.5 | 62% |
| Spread -5.5 | 61% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 61% |
| 4Q O/U 53.5 | 61% |
| Clippers 1H O/U 50.5 | 60% |
| Lakers O/U 114.5 | 60% |
| Spread -6.5 | 59% |
| Keaton Wagler: Points O/U 9.5 | 59% |
| Rui Hachimura: Points O/U 9.5 | 58% |
| O/U 222.5 | 57% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 56% |
| Spread -7.5 | 55% |
| Brook Lopez: Points O/U 9.5 | 55% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 55% |
| Walker Kessler: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 54% |
| Clippers O/U 107.5 | 54% |
| Walker Kessler: Points O/U 9.5 | 52% |
| Darius Garland: Points O/U 14.5 | 52% |
| Derrick Jones Jr.: Points O/U 9.5 | 52% |
| Quentin Grimes: Points O/U 4.5 | 52% |
| Sandro Mamukelashvili: Points O/U 4.5 | 52% |
| 1Q O/U 55.5 | 52% |
| Brook Lopez: Points O/U 4.5 | 52% |
| O/U 225.5 | 51% |
| Luka Dončić: Assists O/U 7.5 | 51% |
| Austin Reaves: Points O/U 14.5 | 51% |
| Quentin Grimes: Points O/U 9.5 | 51% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 51% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 51% |
| Lakers 1H O/U 57.5 | 51% |
| Spread -8.5 | 51% |
| Team to Score First | 50% |
| Odd/Even Score | 50% |
| Overtime? | 50% |
| Race to 10 | 50% |
| Race to 20 | 50% |
| Race to 30 | 50% |
| Walker Kessler: Assists O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Luka Dončić: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| Derrick Jones Jr.: Points O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Isaiah Jackson: Points O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 52.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 58.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 54.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 56.5 | 50% |
| Clippers O/U 108.5 | 50% |
| Clippers 1H O/U 52.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 58.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| Lakers 2H O/U 63.5 | 50% |
| Clippers 2H O/U 49.5 | 50% |
| Clippers 2H O/U 51.5 | 50% |
| Clippers 2H O/U 53.5 | 50% |
| Clippers 2H O/U 55.5 | 50% |
| Clippers 2H O/U 57.5 | 50% |
| Lakers 2H O/U 55.5 | 50% |
| Lakers 2H O/U 57.5 | 50% |
| Lakers 2H O/U 59.5 | 50% |
| Lakers 2H O/U 61.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| Darius Garland: Rebounds O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 52.5 | 50% |
| Darius Garland: Assists O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Spread -28.5 | 50% |
| Spread -32.5 | 50% |
| Spread -30.5 | 50% |
| Spread -26.5 | 50% |
| Spread -24.5 | 50% |
| Spread -22.5 | 50% |
| Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| Spread -11.5 | 50% |
| Spread -15.5 | 50% |
| Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| Spread -19.5 | 50% |
| Spread -23.5 | 50% |
| O/U 208.5 | 50% |
| O/U 210.5 | 50% |
| O/U 212.5 | 50% |
| O/U 214.5 | 50% |
| O/U 216.5 | 50% |
| O/U 218.5 | 50% |
| O/U 220.5 | 50% |
| O/U 224.5 | 50% |
| O/U 230.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -18.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -22.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -12.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -11.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 100.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 94.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 96.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 98.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 104.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 108.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 112.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 116.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 120.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 124.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 122.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 126.5 | 50% |
| Walker Kessler: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 49% |
| Darius Garland: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 49% |
| Darius Garland: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 49% |
| 1H O/U 110.5 | 49% |
| Brook Lopez: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 49% |
| Kris Dunn: Points O/U 4.5 | 49% |
| Matisse Thybulle: Points O/U 4.5 | 49% |
| Derrick Jones Jr.: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 49% |
| Derrick Jones Jr.: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 49% |
| Derrick Jones Jr.: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 49% |
| Kris Dunn: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 49% |
| Kris Dunn: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 49% |
| Kris Dunn: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 49% |
| Matisse Thybulle: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 49% |
| Matisse Thybulle: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 49% |
| Matisse Thybulle: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 49% |
| Sandro Mamukelashvili: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 49% |
| Ziaire Williams: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 49% |
| Ziaire Williams: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 49% |
| Austin Reaves: Steals O/U 0.5 | 49% |
| Austin Reaves: Steals O/U 1.5 | 49% |
| Austin Reaves: Steals O/U 2.5 | 49% |
| Darius Garland: Steals O/U 0.5 | 49% |
| Darius Garland: Steals O/U 1.5 | 49% |
| Darius Garland: Steals O/U 2.5 | 49% |
| Derrick Jones Jr.: Steals O/U 0.5 | 49% |
| Derrick Jones Jr.: Steals O/U 1.5 | 49% |
| Derrick Jones Jr.: Steals O/U 2.5 | 49% |
| Kris Dunn: Steals O/U 0.5 | 49% |
| Kris Dunn: Steals O/U 1.5 | 49% |
| Kris Dunn: Steals O/U 2.5 | 49% |
| Luka Dončić: Steals O/U 0.5 | 49% |
| Luka Dončić: Steals O/U 1.5 | 49% |
| Luka Dončić: Steals O/U 2.5 | 49% |
| Matisse Thybulle: Steals O/U 0.5 | 49% |
| Matisse Thybulle: Steals O/U 1.5 | 49% |
| Matisse Thybulle: Steals O/U 2.5 | 49% |
| Ziaire Williams: Steals O/U 0.5 | 49% |
| Ziaire Williams: Steals O/U 1.5 | 49% |
| Ziaire Williams: Steals O/U 2.5 | 49% |
| Brook Lopez: Blocks O/U 0.5 | 49% |
| Brook Lopez: Blocks O/U 1.5 | 49% |
| Brook Lopez: Blocks O/U 2.5 | 49% |
| Derrick Jones Jr.: Blocks O/U 0.5 | 49% |
| Derrick Jones Jr.: Blocks O/U 1.5 | 49% |
| Derrick Jones Jr.: Blocks O/U 2.5 | 49% |
| Isaiah Jackson: Blocks O/U 0.5 | 49% |
| Isaiah Jackson: Blocks O/U 1.5 | 49% |
| Isaiah Jackson: Blocks O/U 2.5 | 49% |
| Walker Kessler: Blocks O/U 1.5 | 49% |
| Walker Kessler: Blocks O/U 2.5 | 49% |
| Walker Kessler: Blocks O/U 3.5 | 49% |
| Walker Kessler: Blocks O/U 4.5 | 49% |
| Ziaire Williams: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 49% |
| Keaton Wagler: Points O/U 4.5 | 49% |
| Keaton Wagler: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 48% |
| Rui Hachimura: Points O/U 17.5 | 48% |
| Matisse Thybulle: Rebounds O/U 2.5 | 48% |
| Matisse Thybulle: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 48% |
| O/U 226.5 | 48% |
| 2Q O/U 54.5 | 48% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 48% |
| Spread -9.5 | 47% |
| Austin Reaves: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 47% |
| Rui Hachimura: Points O/U 14.5 | 47% |
| Matisse Thybulle: Points O/U 9.5 | 47% |
| Quentin Grimes: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 47% |
| Quentin Grimes: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 47% |
| 4Q O/U 60.5 | 47% |
| Clippers O/U 109.5 | 47% |
| Lakers O/U 118.5 | 47% |
| 4Q O/U 58.5 | 47% |
| Rui Hachimura: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 46% |
| Sandro Mamukelashvili: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 46% |
| O/U 227.5 | 46% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 46% |
| Darius Garland: Assists O/U 5.5 | 45% |
| 3Q O/U 59.5 | 45% |
| 4Q O/U 57.5 | 45% |
| 1H Spread -0.5 | 45% |
| Rui Hachimura: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 45% |
| O/U 228.5 | 44% |
| Spread -10.5 | 44% |
| Luka Dončić: Points O/U 24.5 | 44% |
| Austin Reaves: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 43% |
| Darius Garland: Points O/U 25.5 | 43% |
| Darius Garland: Assists O/U 7.5 | 43% |
| Darius Garland: Points O/U 19.5 | 43% |
| Keaton Wagler: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 43% |
| O/U 229.5 | 43% |
| Brook Lopez: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 42% |
| Sandro Mamukelashvili: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 42% |
| Lakers O/U 119.5 | 42% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 42% |
| Walker Kessler: Points O/U 14.5 | 41% |
| Luka Dončić: Points O/U 29.5 | 41% |
| Keaton Wagler: Assists O/U 3.5 | 41% |
| Ziaire Williams: Points O/U 4.5 | 41% |
| Austin Reaves: Assists O/U 5.5 | 40% |
| Clippers 1H O/U 54.5 | 40% |
| Lakers 1H O/U 59.5 | 40% |
| O/U 231.5 | 39% |
| Luka Dončić: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 39% |
| Luka Dončić: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 39% |
| Rui Hachimura: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 39% |
| Sandro Mamukelashvili: Points O/U 9.5 | 39% |
| Spread -12.5 | 38% |
| Austin Reaves: Points O/U 19.5 | 38% |
| Isaiah Jackson: Points O/U 9.5 | 38% |
| Quentin Grimes: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 38% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 38% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 38% |
| Clippers O/U 112.5 | 38% |
| Austin Reaves: Assists O/U 4.5 | 36% |
| Derrick Jones Jr.: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 36% |
| 1Q Spread -5.5 | 36% |
| Clippers O/U 113.5 | 36% |
| Brook Lopez: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 36% |
| Rui Hachimura: Points O/U 16.5 | 35% |
| Darius Garland: Points O/U 24.5 | 35% |
| 1H O/U 114.5 | 35% |
| O/U 233.5 | 34% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 34% |
| Austin Reaves: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 33% |
| O/U 234.5 | 32% |
| Austin Reaves: Points O/U 22.5 | 32% |
| Walker Kessler: Rebounds O/U 10.5 | 32% |
| Rui Hachimura: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 32% |
| Brook Lopez: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 32% |
| Derrick Jones Jr.: Points O/U 19.5 | 32% |
| Isaiah Jackson: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 32% |
| Isaiah Jackson: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 32% |
| Sandro Mamukelashvili: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 32% |
| 4Q O/U 59.5 | 32% |
| Lakers 1H O/U 61.5 | 32% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 32% |
| Isaiah Jackson: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 31% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 31% |
| Spread -15.5 | 30% |
| Lakers O/U 123.5 | 30% |
| Clippers 1H O/U 56.5 | 30% |
| Clippers O/U 114.5 | 30% |
| Kris Dunn: Assists O/U 3.5 | 29% |
| Isaiah Jackson: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 29% |
| Kris Dunn: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 29% |
| Quentin Grimes: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 29% |
| O/U 236.5 | 28% |
| Walker Kessler: Assists O/U 2.5 | 28% |
| Luka Dončić: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 28% |
| Keaton Wagler: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 28% |
| 1H Moneyline | 28% |
| Matisse Thybulle: Points O/U 14.5 | 28% |
| Ziaire Williams: Rebounds O/U 2.5 | 28% |
| Ziaire Williams: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 28% |
| Keaton Wagler: Points O/U 10.5 | 28% |
| Luka Dončić: Points O/U 32.5 | 27% |
| Brook Lopez: Points O/U 24.5 | 27% |
| Kris Dunn: Points O/U 14.5 | 27% |
| Ziaire Williams: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 27% |
| Lakers O/U 124.5 | 27% |
| Darius Garland: Points O/U 23.5 | 27% |
| Walker Kessler: Points O/U 13.5 | 27% |
| Austin Reaves: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 26% |
| Keaton Wagler: Points O/U 12.5 | 26% |
| Brook Lopez: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 26% |
| Derrick Jones Jr.: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 26% |
| Quentin Grimes: Assists O/U 2.5 | 26% |
| Clippers vs. Lakers | 25% |
| O/U 238.5 | 25% |
| Matisse Thybulle: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 25% |
| Quentin Grimes: Assists O/U 4.5 | 25% |
| Keaton Wagler: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 24% |
| Isaiah Jackson: Points O/U 14.5 | 24% |
| Kris Dunn: Assists O/U 4.5 | 24% |
| Quentin Grimes: Assists O/U 3.5 | 24% |
| 1H O/U 118.5 | 24% |
| O/U 239.5 | 23% |
| Keaton Wagler: Assists O/U 4.5 | 23% |
| Brook Lopez: Points O/U 14.5 | 23% |
| Kris Dunn: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 23% |
| Spread -18.5 | 22% |
| Austin Reaves: Points O/U 24.5 | 22% |
| Luka Dončić: Points O/U 34.5 | 22% |
| Walker Kessler: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 22% |
| Rui Hachimura: Points O/U 29.5 | 22% |
| Rui Hachimura: Points O/U 19.5 | 21% |
| Darius Garland: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 21% |
| Ziaire Williams: Points O/U 14.5 | 21% |
| Sandro Mamukelashvili: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 21% |
| Sandro Mamukelashvili: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 21% |
| Clippers O/U 118.5 | 21% |
| O/U 241.5 | 20% |
| Rui Hachimura: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 20% |
| Quentin Grimes: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 20% |
| Darius Garland: Points O/U 39.5 | 19% |
| Spread -3.5 | 18% |
| Luka Dončić: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 18% |
| Kris Dunn: Points O/U 9.5 | 18% |
| Ziaire Williams: Points O/U 9.5 | 18% |
| Lakers O/U 128.5 | 18% |
| Clippers O/U 119.5 | 18% |
| Austin Reaves: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 17% |
| Darius Garland: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 17% |
| Keaton Wagler: Points O/U 14.5 | 17% |
| Darius Garland: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 17% |
| O/U 244.5 | 16% |
| Darius Garland: Points O/U 29.5 | 16% |
| Keaton Wagler: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 16% |
| Brook Lopez: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 16% |
| Derrick Jones Jr.: Points O/U 14.5 | 16% |
| Rui Hachimura: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 15% |
| Luka Dončić: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 14% |
| Walker Kessler: Rebounds O/U 13.5 | 14% |
| Luka Dončić: Assists O/U 9.5 | 14% |
| Brook Lopez: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 14% |
| Spread -6.5 | 13% |
| O/U 247.5 | 13% |
| Luka Dončić: Points O/U 39.5 | 13% |
| Darius Garland: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 13% |
| Lakers O/U 129.5 | 13% |
| Austin Reaves: Points O/U 34.5 | 12% |
| Austin Reaves: Points O/U 39.5 | 12% |
| Luka Dončić: Points O/U 49.5 | 12% |
| Walker Kessler: Rebounds O/U 17.5 | 12% |
| Darius Garland: Assists O/U 9.5 | 12% |
| Quentin Grimes: Points O/U 14.5 | 12% |
| Austin Reaves: Points O/U 29.5 | 11% |
| Austin Reaves: Assists O/U 9.5 | 11% |
| Austin Reaves: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 11% |
| Luka Dončić: 3-Pointers Made O/U 5.5 | 11% |
| Rui Hachimura: Points O/U 24.5 | 11% |
| Rui Hachimura: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 11% |
| O/U 250.5 | 10% |
| Walker Kessler: Points O/U 19.5 | 10% |
| Austin Reaves: Assists O/U 7.5 | 10% |
| Brook Lopez: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 9% |
| Sandro Mamukelashvili: Points O/U 14.5 | 9% |
| Sandro Mamukelashvili: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 9% |
| Spread -9.5 | 8% |
| Luka Dončić: Points O/U 44.5 | 8% |
| Luka Dončić: Assists O/U 11.5 | 8% |
| Darius Garland: Points O/U 34.5 | 8% |
| Keaton Wagler: Points O/U 24.5 | 8% |
| Luka Dončić: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 7% |
| Rui Hachimura: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 7% |
| Rui Hachimura: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 7% |
| Austin Reaves: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 6% |
| Walker Kessler: Rebounds O/U 15.5 | 6% |
| Austin Reaves: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 6% |
| Keaton Wagler: Points O/U 19.5 | 6% |
| Darius Garland: Assists O/U 11.5 | 6% |
| Walker Kessler: Points O/U 24.5 | 5% |
| Brook Lopez: Points O/U 19.5 | 5% |
| Spread -13.5 | 0% |
Markt-Kontext
Händler auf dezentralen Prognosemärkten geben 82% Wahrscheinlichkeit für Prognose: Clippers vs. Lakers. In the upcoming NBA game, scheduled for October 23 at 10:00PM ET: If the Clippers win, the market will resolve to "Clippers". If the Lakers win, the market will resolve to "Lakers". If the game is pos…
Live-Daten & Statistiken
Live-Statistiken werden geladen, sobald das Spiel beginnt. Aktuelle Quoten sind oben verfügbar. Handelsvolumen: $375K.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Wir tracken Prognose: Clippers vs. Lakers auf den fünf Plattformen mit substanzieller Prediction-Market-Liquidität. Die angezeigte Wahrscheinlichkeit ist der Polymarket-Live-Mid; die Vergleichszeilen zeigen, wie jede Plattform den zugrundeliegenden Vertrag handhabt — Gebühren, KYC, Settlement, Einzahlungsmethoden. Die hervorgehobene Zeile markiert die günstigste Route in Polymarkets Orderbuch.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Polymarket-basierte Märkte werden über das UMA Optimistic Oracle auf Polygon aufgelöst. Ein Vorschlagender reicht das Ergebnis ein, ein zweistündiges Einspruchsfenster öffnet sich, und unangefochtene Vorschläge schließen die Auflösung ab. Auszahlungen erfolgen automatisch in USDC, sobald das Ergebnis final ist — keine Buchhalter, keine Verzögerung.
Kalshi-basierte Märkte werden in USD über die CFTC-regulierte Settlement-Engine ausgezahlt. Betfair Exchange zahlt in GBP/EUR aus, abzüglich Kommission. Manifold ist Spielgeld und zahlt keine echten Beträge aus.
Häufige Fragen
- Sind Prediction-Märkte in Deutschland legal?
- Prediction-Märkte befinden sich in Deutschland in einem rechtlichen Graubereich. Polymarket selbst ist in Deutschland geo-blockiert. Handeln Sie nur mit Kapital, dessen Verlust Sie verkraften können, und prüfen Sie die rechtliche Lage für Ihre Jurisdiktion.
- Was ist der Unterschied zwischen YES- und NO-Anteilen?
- Ein YES-Anteil zahlt $1,00 bei Eintritt des Ereignisses, sonst $0. Ein NO-Anteil zahlt $1,00, wenn das Ereignis nicht eintritt. Der Marktpreis zwischen 0¢ und 100¢ ist die implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit.
- Wie lange dauert eine USDC-Einzahlung?
- Auf Polygon werden Einzahlungen nach 12 Bestätigungen gutgeschrieben — in der Regel unter 30 Sekunden. Withdrawals folgen demselben Pfad und sind binnen Minuten auf Ihrer Wallet.
- Brauche ich KYC für diesen Markt?
- Auf Polymarket direkt nicht. Über vermittelnde Broker wie Polymarket Deutsch ist KYC erst ab $1.500 lebenslangem Trading-Volumen erforderlich — darunter handeln Sie pseudonym mit nur einer Wallet-Adresse.
- Wie verlässlich sind die angezeigten Quoten?
- Die YES/NO-Prozentsätze sind die Live-Mid-Preise des Polymarket-Orderbuchs. Auf Märkten mit hoher Liquidität bewegen sich diese Werte sekündlich; bei dünneren Märkten sehen Sie kurze Plateaus.
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