Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über Polymarket Deutsch) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
97% | 3% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Auf Polymarket ansehen → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
97% | 3% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Auf Polymarket ansehen → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Auf Polymarket ansehen → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Auf Polymarket ansehen → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Auf Polymarket ansehen → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| O/U 24.5 | 97% |
| O/U 26.5 | 95% |
| O/U 28.5 | 94% |
| 2Q O/U 5.5 | 94% |
| Saints O/U 10.5 | 93% |
| O/U 30.5 | 91% |
| 4Q O/U 5.5 | 91% |
| Falcons O/U 10.5 | 91% |
| Saints O/U 12.5 | 91% |
| O/U 32.5 | 90% |
| Falcons O/U 12.5 | 90% |
| Saints O/U 13.5 | 90% |
| 2Q O/U 6.5 | 89% |
| Falcons O/U 13.5 | 88% |
| Saints O/U 16.5 | 87% |
| O/U 34.5 | 85% |
| 3Q O/U 5.5 | 85% |
| 4Q O/U 6.5 | 85% |
| 2Q O/U 7.5 | 84% |
| Saints 1H O/U 6.5 | 82% |
| O/U 36.5 | 81% |
| 1H O/U 16.5 | 81% |
| Falcons 1H O/U 6.5 | 79% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 78% |
| Falcons O/U 16.5 | 78% |
| O/U 38.5 | 77% |
| 3Q O/U 6.5 | 74% |
| 1Q O/U 6.5 | 73% |
| Saints O/U 19.5 | 73% |
| O/U 40.5 | 72% |
| 1H O/U 19.5 | 72% |
| 1Q O/U 5.5 | 71% |
| Falcons O/U 19.5 | 69% |
| O/U 41.5 | 68% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 2Q | 68% |
| O/U 42.5 | 67% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 67% |
| Saints O/U 20.5 | 67% |
| Saints 1H O/U 10.5 | 67% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 4Q | 64% |
| O/U 43.5 | 63% |
| 2H O/U 19.5 | 63% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 63% |
| 2H O/U 16.5 | 62% |
| Falcons O/U 20.5 | 62% |
| O/U 44.5 | 60% |
| Falcons 2H O/U 6.5 | 60% |
| Saints 2H O/U 6.5 | 59% |
| O/U 45.5 | 57% |
| 1H O/U 22.5 | 57% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 57% |
| 2H O/U 22.5 | 56% |
| O/U 46.5 | 55% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 55% |
| Saints O/U 23.5 | 55% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 54% |
| Spread -0.5 | 53% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 52% |
| Saints 1H O/U 12.5 | 52% |
| Spread -1.5 | 51% |
| O/U 47.5 | 51% |
| 2H O/U 25.5 | 51% |
| Falcons O/U 23.5 | 51% |
| Falcons Total Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 51% |
| 2H Moneyline | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| Falcons 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Falcons 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Saints 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Saints 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 50% |
| Falcons Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Saints Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| Falcons 1H O/U 10.5 | 49% |
| Saints Total Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 49% |
| Spread -2.5 | 48% |
| O/U 48.5 | 48% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 48% |
| Saints 2H O/U 13.5 | 48% |
| 1H Moneyline | 48% |
| Falcons vs. Saints | 47% |
| 2Q O/U 14.5 | 47% |
| Falcons 2H O/U 13.5 | 47% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 46% |
| Spread -1.5 | 45% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 45% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 45% |
| Falcons 1H O/U 12.5 | 45% |
| Saints O/U 26.5 | 44% |
| Saints 2H O/U 16.5 | 44% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 3Q | 44% |
| Falcons vs. Saints: Total Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 44% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 43% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 43% |
| 1H O/U 25.5 | 43% |
| Saints 1H O/U 13.5 | 43% |
| O/U 50.5 | 42% |
| Spread -2.5 | 42% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 42% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 42% |
| 4Q O/U 14.5 | 42% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 41% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 41% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 1Q | 41% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 40% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 40% |
| Falcons 2H O/U 16.5 | 40% |
| Falcons 2H O/U 17.5 | 40% |
| Falcons 2H O/U 19.5 | 40% |
| Falcons 2H O/U 20.5 | 40% |
| Spread -3.5 | 39% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 39% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 39% |
| Falcons 1H O/U 13.5 | 39% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 38% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 38% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 38% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 38% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 38% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 38% |
| Falcons O/U 26.5 | 38% |
| Saints 2H O/U 17.5 | 38% |
| Saints 2H O/U 19.5 | 38% |
| Saints 2H O/U 20.5 | 38% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 37% |
| Spread -4.5 | 36% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 36% |
| Saints O/U 27.5 | 36% |
| O/U 52.5 | 35% |
| Spread -5.5 | 35% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 35% |
| Spread -3.5 | 34% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 34% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 34% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 34% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 33% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 33% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 32% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 32% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 32% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 32% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 32% |
| Falcons O/U 27.5 | 32% |
| O/U 54.5 | 31% |
| Spread -4.5 | 31% |
| Spread -6.5 | 31% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 31% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 31% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 31% |
| 2H O/U 28.5 | 31% |
| Spread -5.5 | 30% |
| 1H O/U 28.5 | 30% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 29% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 29% |
| Saints 1H O/U 16.5 | 29% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 28% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 28% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 28% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 28% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 28% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 28% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 28% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 28% |
| Spread -7.5 | 27% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 27% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 27% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 27% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 27% |
| O/U 56.5 | 26% |
| Spread -6.5 | 26% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 26% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 26% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 26% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 26% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 26% |
| Saints O/U 30.5 | 26% |
| Falcons 1H O/U 16.5 | 26% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 25% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 25% |
| Spread -8.5 | 24% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 24% |
| Spread -9.5 | 23% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 23% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 23% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 23% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 23% |
| Saints 1H O/U 17.5 | 23% |
| Spread -7.5 | 22% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 22% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 22% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 22% |
| Falcons O/U 30.5 | 22% |
| Exact Margin: Saints by 1-6 | 22% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 21% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 21% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 21% |
| O/U 58.5 | 20% |
| Spread -10.5 | 20% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 20% |
| Falcons 1H O/U 17.5 | 20% |
| Exact Margin: Falcons by 1-6 | 20% |
| O/U 60.5 | 19% |
| Spread -8.5 | 19% |
| Spread -9.5 | 19% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 19% |
| 3Q O/U 14.5 | 19% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 18% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 18% |
| Saints 1H O/U 19.5 | 18% |
| Spread -13.5 | 17% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 17% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 17% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 17% |
| Spread -10.5 | 16% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 16% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 15% |
| 1Q O/U 14.5 | 15% |
| O/U 62.5 | 14% |
| Spread -14.5 | 14% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 14% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 14% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 14% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 14% |
| Falcons 1H O/U 19.5 | 14% |
| Saints 1H O/U 20.5 | 14% |
| Spread -13.5 | 13% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 13% |
| Spread -16.5 | 12% |
| O/U 64.5 | 11% |
| Spread -14.5 | 11% |
| Spread -17.5 | 11% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 11% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 11% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 11% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 11% |
| Falcons 1H O/U 20.5 | 11% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 10% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 10% |
| Spread -16.5 | 9% |
| Spread -19.5 | 9% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 9% |
| Saints O/U 34.5 | 9% |
| Exact Margin: Saints by 7-13 | 9% |
| Spread -20.5 | 8% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 8% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 8% |
| Falcons O/U 34.5 | 8% |
| Exact Margin: Falcons by 7-12 | 8% |
| Safety? | 8% |
| Spread -17.5 | 7% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 7% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 7% |
| Spread -21.5 | 6% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 6% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 6% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 6% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 6% |
| Exact Margin: Saints by 14-20 | 6% |
| Exact Margin: Falcons by 13-18 | 5% |
| Spread -19.5 | 4% |
| Spread -20.5 | 4% |
| Spread -21.5 | 4% |
| Exact Margin: Saints by 21+ | 4% |
| Exact Margin: Falcons by 19-24 | 3% |
| Exact Margin: Falcons by 25+ | 2% |
| Exact Margin: Tie | 1% |
Markt-Kontext
Falcons vs. Saints. The market is currently pricing the outcome at 48% YES, meaning crowd-implied probability sits at that level. Settlement is scheduled for 2026-10-06T00:15:00Z. Unlike a sportsbook, the price you see is set by buyers and sellers competing in a live order book — there is no house edge or bookmaker margin to fade.
Sports outcome markets resolve from official league data once the contest finishes. Pricing typically tightens through the warm-up window as line-ups, weather, and starting-pitcher data become public, then moves on goals or runs in real time.
Watch for the underlying catalysts that move this category: each official announcement, dataset release, or scheduled milestone generally produces a step change in the implied probability. Trades execute instantly on Polygon, and shares pay $1 each at resolution if your side wins.
Live-Daten & Statistiken
Live-Statistiken werden geladen, sobald das Spiel beginnt. Aktuelle Quoten sind oben verfügbar. Handelsvolumen: $1.4M.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Wir tracken Prognose: Falcons vs. Saints auf den fünf Plattformen mit substanzieller Prediction-Market-Liquidität. Die angezeigte Wahrscheinlichkeit ist der Polymarket-Live-Mid; die Vergleichszeilen zeigen, wie jede Plattform den zugrundeliegenden Vertrag handhabt — Gebühren, KYC, Settlement, Einzahlungsmethoden. Die hervorgehobene Zeile markiert die günstigste Route in Polymarkets Orderbuch.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Polymarket-basierte Märkte werden über das UMA Optimistic Oracle auf Polygon aufgelöst. Ein Vorschlagender reicht das Ergebnis ein, ein zweistündiges Einspruchsfenster öffnet sich, und unangefochtene Vorschläge schließen die Auflösung ab. Auszahlungen erfolgen automatisch in USDC, sobald das Ergebnis final ist — keine Buchhalter, keine Verzögerung.
Kalshi-basierte Märkte werden in USD über die CFTC-regulierte Settlement-Engine ausgezahlt. Betfair Exchange zahlt in GBP/EUR aus, abzüglich Kommission. Manifold ist Spielgeld und zahlt keine echten Beträge aus.
Häufige Fragen
- Wie funktioniert die Auflösung?
- Über das UMA Optimistic Oracle: ein Vorschlagender reicht das Ergebnis ein, ein zweistündiges Einspruchsfenster öffnet sich, USDC-Auszahlung erfolgt automatisch.
- Was ist der Unterschied zwischen YES- und NO-Anteilen?
- Ein YES-Anteil zahlt $1,00 bei Eintritt des Ereignisses, sonst $0. Ein NO-Anteil zahlt $1,00, wenn das Ereignis nicht eintritt. Der Marktpreis zwischen 0¢ und 100¢ ist die implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit.
- Welche Gebühren fallen bei Polymarket an?
- Direkt am Polymarket-Orderbuch keine Gebühren — die einzigen Kosten sind Polygon-Netzwerkgebühren (typischerweise unter $0,01 pro Transaktion). Off-chain Plattformen wie Kalshi oder Betfair verlangen 2-7 % Kommission.
- Wie lange dauert eine USDC-Einzahlung?
- Auf Polygon werden Einzahlungen nach 12 Bestätigungen gutgeschrieben — in der Regel unter 30 Sekunden. Withdrawals folgen demselben Pfad und sind binnen Minuten auf Ihrer Wallet.
- Wie verlässlich sind die angezeigten Quoten?
- Die YES/NO-Prozentsätze sind die Live-Mid-Preise des Polymarket-Orderbuchs. Auf Märkten mit hoher Liquidität bewegen sich diese Werte sekündlich; bei dünneren Märkten sehen Sie kurze Plateaus.
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