Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über Polymarket Deutsch) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
93% | 7% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Auf Polymarket ansehen → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
93% | 7% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Auf Polymarket ansehen → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Auf Polymarket ansehen → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Auf Polymarket ansehen → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Auf Polymarket ansehen → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| O/U 24.5 | 93% |
| Chiefs O/U 10.5 | 92% |
| O/U 26.5 | 89% |
| O/U 28.5 | 88% |
| Broncos O/U 10.5 | 88% |
| O/U 30.5 | 85% |
| O/U 32.5 | 83% |
| Chiefs 1H O/U 6.5 | 83% |
| Broncos 1H O/U 6.5 | 81% |
| 4Q O/U 6.5 | 78% |
| O/U 34.5 | 77% |
| Chiefs O/U 16.5 | 77% |
| Broncos O/U 14.5 | 77% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 75% |
| 2Q O/U 6.5 | 74% |
| Broncos 1H O/U 7.5 | 73% |
| Broncos O/U 16.5 | 73% |
| O/U 36.5 | 72% |
| 2Q O/U 7.5 | 72% |
| Chiefs O/U 12.5 | 72% |
| 1H O/U 16.5 | 70% |
| Broncos O/U 12.5 | 70% |
| Broncos O/U 13.5 | 70% |
| Chiefs O/U 13.5 | 69% |
| Chiefs O/U 17.5 | 69% |
| 2H Spread -0.5 | 68% |
| 2H O/U 14.5 | 67% |
| 2H O/U 16.5 | 67% |
| 2H O/U 17.5 | 66% |
| 2Q Spread -0.5 | 66% |
| 4Q Spread -0.5 | 66% |
| Chiefs O/U 19.5 | 66% |
| O/U 38.5 | 65% |
| Broncos O/U 17.5 | 65% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 64% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 2Q | 64% |
| 1Q O/U 6.5 | 64% |
| O/U 39.5 | 63% |
| 3Q O/U 6.5 | 63% |
| Broncos O/U 19.5 | 61% |
| O/U 40.5 | 60% |
| 1H O/U 19.5 | 59% |
| Chiefs O/U 20.5 | 57% |
| O/U 41.5 | 56% |
| Spread -0.5 | 56% |
| 1Q O/U 4.5 | 56% |
| 1Q O/U 5.5 | 56% |
| 3Q O/U 5.5 | 56% |
| 2H O/U 20.5 | 55% |
| Broncos 1H O/U 9.5 | 55% |
| 2H O/U 19.5 | 55% |
| O/U 42.5 | 54% |
| 2Q O/U 5.5 | 54% |
| Chiefs 1H O/U 11.5 | 54% |
| Spread -1.5 | 53% |
| 3Q O/U 1.5 | 53% |
| 3Q O/U 4.5 | 53% |
| 4Q O/U 5.5 | 53% |
| Chiefs 1H O/U 12.5 | 53% |
| Broncos O/U 20.5 | 53% |
| Broncos 1H O/U 12.5 | 53% |
| 4Q O/U 4.5 | 53% |
| 1Q O/U 1.5 | 52% |
| 4Q O/U 8.5 | 52% |
| 4Q O/U 11.5 | 52% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 52% |
| Chiefs O/U 22.5 | 52% |
| 1H O/U 20.5 | 52% |
| 2Q Spread -5.5 | 52% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 52% |
| 2H Moneyline | 51% |
| 3Q Spread -0.5 | 51% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 51% |
| Chiefs 1H O/U 8.5 | 51% |
| Broncos 2H O/U 7.5 | 51% |
| Broncos 2H O/U 11.5 | 51% |
| Exact Margin: Chiefs by 14-20 | 51% |
| Safety? | 51% |
| Broncos vs. Chiefs: Total Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 51% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 51% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 51% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 51% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 51% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 51% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 51% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 51% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 51% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 51% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 51% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 51% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 51% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 51% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 51% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 51% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 51% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 51% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 51% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 51% |
| 1Q Spread -5.5 | 51% |
| 1Q Spread -8.5 | 51% |
| 4Q Spread -5.5 | 51% |
| 4Q Spread -8.5 | 51% |
| Broncos 2H O/U 10.5 | 51% |
| Broncos 2H O/U 12.5 | 51% |
| Broncos 2H O/U 17.5 | 51% |
| Chiefs 2H O/U 16.5 | 51% |
| Chiefs 2H O/U 15.5 | 51% |
| Broncos 2H O/U 14.5 | 51% |
| Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| O/U 43.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| Chiefs 2H O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| Chiefs 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Chiefs 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Broncos 2H O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Chiefs by 21+ | 50% |
| Broncos Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Chiefs Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| Broncos 2H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Broncos 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Broncos 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Broncos 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Broncos 2H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| Chiefs 2H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Chiefs 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Chiefs 2H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Chiefs 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Chiefs 2H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| Chiefs 1H O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| Chiefs 2H O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 49% |
| Exact Margin: Chiefs by 7-13 | 49% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 48% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 4Q | 48% |
| Chiefs Total Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 48% |
| 2H O/U 22.5 | 48% |
| 4Q O/U 16.5 | 48% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 47% |
| 1H O/U 21.5 | 47% |
| Broncos O/U 22.5 | 47% |
| O/U 44.5 | 46% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 46% |
| Broncos vs. Chiefs | 45% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 45% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 45% |
| 1H Moneyline | 45% |
| Chiefs O/U 23.5 | 45% |
| 1H O/U 22.5 | 44% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 44% |
| 2Q O/U 19.5 | 44% |
| Chiefs 1H O/U 10.5 | 44% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 44% |
| O/U 45.5 | 43% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 43% |
| 2H O/U 23.5 | 43% |
| Spread -1.5 | 43% |
| Spread -2.5 | 43% |
| 1Q Spread -0.5 | 42% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 42% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 42% |
| Broncos Total Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 42% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 3Q | 41% |
| Spread -3.5 | 40% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 40% |
| Broncos O/U 23.5 | 40% |
| 2H O/U 25.5 | 40% |
| Chiefs 1H O/U 17.5 | 40% |
| O/U 46.5 | 39% |
| 2H O/U 26.5 | 39% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 39% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 39% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 39% |
| Spread -4.5 | 38% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 38% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 38% |
| Broncos 1H O/U 11.5 | 38% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 1Q | 38% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 38% |
| 1H O/U 25.5 | 38% |
| O/U 47.5 | 37% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 37% |
| Chiefs O/U 25.5 | 37% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 36% |
| Spread -5.5 | 36% |
| Broncos 1H O/U 10.5 | 36% |
| O/U 48.5 | 35% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 35% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 35% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 35% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 35% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 34% |
| Team to Record Longest FG | 34% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 34% |
| Spread -3.5 | 33% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 33% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 33% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 33% |
| Chiefs O/U 26.5 | 33% |
| Spread -6.5 | 32% |
| Broncos O/U 25.5 | 32% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 31% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 31% |
| O/U 50.5 | 30% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 30% |
| Spread -4.5 | 30% |
| Spread -7.5 | 30% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 30% |
| 2Q O/U 14.5 | 30% |
| Broncos O/U 30.5 | 30% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 29% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 29% |
| Chiefs O/U 30.5 | 29% |
| Broncos O/U 26.5 | 28% |
| Spread -5.5 | 28% |
| Chiefs 1H O/U 13.5 | 28% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 27% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 27% |
| 4Q O/U 14.5 | 27% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 27% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 27% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 27% |
| Broncos O/U 34.5 | 27% |
| Chiefs O/U 34.5 | 27% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 26% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 26% |
| Spread -6.5 | 26% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 26% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 26% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 26% |
| Chiefs O/U 27.5 | 26% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 25% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 25% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 25% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 25% |
| Broncos 1H O/U 13.5 | 25% |
| Spread -8.5 | 24% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 24% |
| O/U 52.5 | 23% |
| Chiefs O/U 28.5 | 23% |
| Spread -9.5 | 23% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 23% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 23% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 23% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 23% |
| 2H O/U 28.5 | 23% |
| Broncos O/U 27.5 | 23% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 22% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 22% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 22% |
| 3Q Spread -5.5 | 22% |
| Chiefs 1H O/U 16.5 | 22% |
| Chiefs O/U 29.5 | 22% |
| Spread -7.5 | 21% |
| Spread -10.5 | 21% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 21% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 21% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 21% |
| Broncos 1H O/U 14.5 | 21% |
| O/U 54.5 | 20% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 20% |
| Exact Margin: Broncos by 1-6 | 20% |
| Exact Margin: Chiefs by 1-6 | 20% |
| Spread -8.5 | 20% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 20% |
| 1H O/U 28.5 | 20% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 19% |
| Spread -9.5 | 19% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 19% |
| O/U 56.5 | 18% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 18% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 18% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 18% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 18% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 18% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 18% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 18% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 17% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 17% |
| Spread -13.5 | 16% |
| 4Q O/U 17.5 | 15% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 15% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 15% |
| Broncos 1H O/U 17.5 | 15% |
| Exact Margin: Broncos by 7-12 | 14% |
| Spread -10.5 | 14% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 14% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 14% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 14% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 14% |
| Broncos 1H O/U 16.5 | 14% |
| Spread -13.5 | 13% |
| Spread -14.5 | 13% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 13% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 13% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 13% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 13% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 13% |
| O/U 58.5 | 12% |
| Spread -21.5 | 12% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 12% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 12% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 12% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 12% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 12% |
| 3Q Spread -8.5 | 12% |
| O/U 60.5 | 11% |
| Spread -20.5 | 11% |
| Spread -16.5 | 11% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 11% |
| 2Q Spread -8.5 | 11% |
| 3Q O/U 14.5 | 11% |
| Broncos 1H O/U 20.5 | 11% |
| Exact Margin: Broncos by 25+ | 10% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 10% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 10% |
| Chiefs 1H O/U 19.5 | 10% |
| Exact Margin: Broncos by 13-18 | 9% |
| Spread -17.5 | 9% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 9% |
| 1Q O/U 14.5 | 9% |
| O/U 62.5 | 8% |
| Spread -14.5 | 8% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 8% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 8% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 8% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 8% |
| Broncos 1H O/U 19.5 | 8% |
| Chiefs 1H O/U 20.5 | 8% |
| Spread -16.5 | 7% |
| Spread -19.5 | 7% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 7% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 7% |
| O/U 64.5 | 7% |
| Exact Margin: Broncos by 19-24 | 6% |
| Spread -20.5 | 6% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 6% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 6% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 6% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 6% |
| Spread -17.5 | 5% |
| Spread -21.5 | 5% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 5% |
| Spread -19.5 | 4% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 4% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 4% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 3% |
| Exact Margin: Tie | 2% |
Markt-Kontext
Prognose: Broncos vs. Chiefs — aktuelle Marktwahrscheinlichkeit: 93%. In the upcoming NFL game, scheduled for September 14 at 8:15PM ET: If Broncos wins, the market will resolve to "Broncos". If Chiefs wins, the market will resolve to "Chiefs". If the game is postponed,…
Live-Daten & Statistiken
Live-Statistiken werden geladen, sobald das Spiel beginnt. Aktuelle Quoten sind oben verfügbar. Handelsvolumen: $627K.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Diese Seite ist als Vergleichs-Snapshot konzipiert: ein Live-Kurs (Polymarket), vier Referenz-Plattformen mit ihren Schlüssel-Eigenschaften, und ein durchgehender Pfad zur Ausführung — alle Trade-Buttons routen zu Polymarket Deutsch, das den Polymarket-Orderbuch direkt spiegelt.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Die Auflösung läuft on-chain. Polymarkets Vertragslogik trennt YES- und NO-Anteile als Conditional Tokens; bei Auflösung werden die richtigen Anteile zu 100¢ und die anderen zu 0¢. Die Outcome-Eingabe kommt vom UMA Optimistic Oracle, das mit einem Bond-System gegen falsche Auflösung absichert.
Sobald die Auflösung durch ist, hebt der Smart Contract alle gewinnenden Anteile zu USDC und schickt die Beträge an die Wallets der Inhaber. Das geschieht binnen Minuten der finalen Bestätigung — ohne Auszahlungsgebühren über die Polygon-Netzwerkkosten hinaus.
Häufige Fragen
- Sind Prediction-Märkte in Deutschland legal?
- Prediction-Märkte befinden sich in Deutschland in einem rechtlichen Graubereich. Polymarket selbst ist in Deutschland geo-blockiert. Handeln Sie nur mit Kapital, dessen Verlust Sie verkraften können, und prüfen Sie die rechtliche Lage für Ihre Jurisdiktion.
- Wie funktioniert die Auflösung?
- Über das UMA Optimistic Oracle: ein Vorschlagender reicht das Ergebnis ein, ein zweistündiges Einspruchsfenster öffnet sich, USDC-Auszahlung erfolgt automatisch.
- Welche Gebühren fallen bei Polymarket an?
- Direkt am Polymarket-Orderbuch keine Gebühren — die einzigen Kosten sind Polygon-Netzwerkgebühren (typischerweise unter $0,01 pro Transaktion). Off-chain Plattformen wie Kalshi oder Betfair verlangen 2-7 % Kommission.
- Wie lange dauert eine USDC-Einzahlung?
- Auf Polygon werden Einzahlungen nach 12 Bestätigungen gutgeschrieben — in der Regel unter 30 Sekunden. Withdrawals folgen demselben Pfad und sind binnen Minuten auf Ihrer Wallet.
- Wie verlässlich sind die angezeigten Quoten?
- Die YES/NO-Prozentsätze sind die Live-Mid-Preise des Polymarket-Orderbuchs. Auf Märkten mit hoher Liquidität bewegen sich diese Werte sekündlich; bei dünneren Märkten sehen Sie kurze Plateaus.
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